Talking Points from Scottish Football

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

WATT AND SAMMON NEED GOALS

It’s been a positive start for both Hearts and the strike duo of Tony Watt and Conor Sammon. The Jambos gave Celtic their toughest test yet – at least in domestic competition – and came within ten minutes of holding the champions elect. Three successive victories, before defeat at St Johnstone, then put them second in the table. Watt and Sammon, meanwhile, combined to form a formidable partnership.

The former needs to succeed more than the latter. Watt has gained a reputation for having attitude problems, travelling from one club to the next, never fulfilling his potential. The fact he’s been at Airdrieonians, Celtic, Lierse, Standard Liege, Charlton Athletic, Cardiff City, Blackburn Rovers, and now Hearts since debuting in 2010 – eight clubs in six years – highlights that he’s never settled at a club, yet obviously has something about him that managers are willing to take a risk. He’s Scotland’s Mario Balotelli.

Sammon, on the other hand, is a more experienced hand. The 29-year-old, though, should be a warning sign to Watt. He too travelled across the border, young and promising, and returned having failed to match that potential – he notched just three more goals in 167 games in England than his 17 at Kilmarnock. Yet Sammon is also a good professional. His attitude and work-rate on the pitch should be an example for Watt. It helps that both have settled at Tynecastle.

Watt looks like creating something every time he gets on the ball. He possesses that bit of spark that Sammon lacks; the ability to create something from nothing, whether it be a dazzling run past a defender, or a little pass that opens up a back-line. Sammon is a more physical threat. He bullies the opposition defence, using his imposing frame, and tends to find more success linking-up attacks than creating chances for himself. The one thing, despite acclimatising quickly, that both lack, however, is goals. After a combined 13 appearances, the duo have scored just one goal each. Hearts’ goalless draw against Ross County demonstrated why that’s the case.

Sammon and Watt had innumerable opportunities to strike. The duo latched onto several counter-attacks, coming up against a weakened and disorganised defence, and yet seemed to over-complicate the attack each time. One would pass to the other – neither could be accused of being selfish. Scott Fox did a commendable job making it a tough afternoon for the pair. The County goalkeeper proved equal to their best attempts and deserved his clean sheet. It was a performance he’ll be proud of. And, yet, Watt and Sammon should’ve done more. It can’t become a recurring theme.

 

FAMILIAR PROBLEMS FOR PARTICK

I’ll admit that I had high hopes for Partick Thistle at the beginning of the season. Could the Jags, buoyed by the return of Chris Erskine, push for the top six? The answer appears to be: no. After six games – the postponed game against Celtic is unlikely to yield any points – Thistle have five points, three of those gathered from the first game of the campaign.

A 2-0 defeat of a disorganised Inverness CT seemed to confirm my suspicions. The midfield looked both creative and solid in equal measure, the defence had pace and mobility, if lacking in a bit of experience, and the lack of a consistent striker would be made up for by the contributions of Erskine and co. That optimism soon waned. Stuart Bannigan suffered a knee injury that ruled him out for at least six months. Three successive defeats, although against the current second, third, and fourth place teams, sunk expectations, before a disappointing draw at Kilmarnock – a game that Killie looked the better in – sent them to the bottom of the table. Thistle’s weaknesses have been exposed. And they all look so familiar.

Goals are the number one problem. Thistle have conceded just nine goals, better than any side in the bottom six – including Rangers – and the same as fifth place Motherwell. Although the defence looks suspect at best – the Liam Lindsay/Danny Devine partnership lacks experience and consistency over 90 minutes – it’s good enough to deserve a mid-table position. It’s a lack of fire-power that is denying them. Six games in and neither Kris Doolan nor Adebayo Azeez have scored a goal. Azeez looks like another strong but technically weak striker, a Matthias Pogba 2.0, and Doolan is just not consistent enough to warrant a starting berth week-after-week. Liam Lindsay is the club’s second highest scorer. If not for the brilliant form of Erskine, who appears to be loving his football again, the team would be in dire straits. It’s something Alan Archibald needs to address soon. A relegation battle could be the result if he doesn’t.

 

SCOTTISH CHAMPIONSHIP

ST MIRREN DEFENCE NEEDS FIXING

Alex Rae’s dismissal did not come as a shock. Rae did an excellent job after Ian Murray’s departure, steering the club to safety, albeit by unattractive means. The question was: Could he build on that? It looked like he’d done positive business over the summer. However, it became clear that his business was a little too lopsided.

Four strikers arrived in the form of David Clarkson, John Sutton, Ryan Hardie, and Lawrence Shankland. The Aberdeen loanee was a welcome returnee after impressing the previous season. Hardie looked like a coup, as he had proven to be a dangerous striker while on loan at Raith. And although Sutton’s career had stagnated at St Johnstone, his experience and close-range finishing could be great attributes in the Championship. But no one came in to replace Perth bound right-back Keith Watson. Nor did anyone come in to fill the Jim Goodwin shaped void in front of the defence. Rae even felt confident enough to let centre-half Ben Gordon depart on loan to Alloa. This imbalance proved to be his undoing.

It’s an issue his replacement, whoever that may be, needs to address straight away. The Saints need more options. They also need a defender in his prime. Against Dunfermline, St Mirren lined-up with Gary MacKenzie and Gary Irvine, both in their early 30s, alongside Jack Baird and Jason Naismith, the former a teenager, the latter just 22. Substitute Andy Webster, whose time appears to be up, did nothing to rectify this imbalance. The Buddies are in dire need of a centre-half in his mid-20s; someone who has both experience and can turn quicker than an 18-wheeler. There also needs to be a change in system.

Rae stubbornly clung on to his 4-4-2 despite the poor results it yielded. It didn’t help that the Saints had just two central midfielders to choose from: Kyle Hutton and Stephen Mallan – Rocco Quinn returned a week too late to help Rae. A 4-4-2, as Leicester fans can attest, relies on an energetic, mobile, and hard-working midfield; one that can perform both defensive and attacking duties. Hutton and Mallan weren’t up to the task. Hutton, quite simply, is not good enough. Mallan, meanwhile, is an attacker at heart. He longs to venture forward and often lacks the desire to get back and do the dirty work. Rae’s summer dealings forced him into this predicament. He needed a three-man midfield to help stabilise the defence, yet that would’ve meant sacrificing a striker. Rae dug himself into a hole.

 

SCOTTISH LEAGUE ONE

LIVI DEFENCE NEEDS A REJIG

The weekend’s surprising result in League One came at Bayview, where three goals in 26 minutes sunk Livingston. Jamie Insall, continuing his fine form in his second loan stint at East Fife, grabbed a brace, while Chris Kane, regarded as a failure at relegated Cowdenbeath last season, scored a howitzer. The considerable travelling support booed off their team at half-time, shocked at the lacklustre performance, but got behind them as it appeared a second-half comeback could be on the cards. Josh Mullin’s finish came as a result of a period of dominance for Livi. The Fifers sunk further and further into their own half, desperate long balls up to an isolated Insall becoming their only respite, as the visitors turned the screw. But East Fife held on. The threat subsided. The momentum began to even out. Although the game was out of reach for Livi, a couple of suspect red cards for Michael Miller and Alan Lithgow ended any hope of snatching a late point. However, David Hopkin must be questioning how Livi capitulated in those 26 minutes. All three goals could’ve been prevented.

The first came inside eight minutes, in part thanks to the aid of the East Neuk wind. Mark Hurst’s long ball cleared the entire Livi defence, landing ahead of the chasing Insall. Craig Halkett, the one Lions defender possessing an ounce of pace, watched the ball and failed to track the lurking East Fife striker. Insall let the ball take one bounce, before lofting it over the head of Liam Kelly, who found himself in No Man’s Land. Halkett should’ve been tracking the runner, but Kelly, who spent a spell on loan at Bayview last season, failed to make up his mind, and was caught in between. Halkett fumed.

It was a surprise lead for the Fifers, and one that was soon extended. Three minutes after celebrating Insall’s chip, Chris Kane added a second. Gary Naysmith’s free-kick found Kevin Smith on the edge of the box. His simple header fell to Kane, who swept the ball into the top right corner. The Livi defence sank deep as the free-kick came in and again focused on the ball rather than the man. Kane found himself in space around the spot. The afternoon was to get worse for Livi.

Smith’s long ball again cut out the Livi defence, lofting over the heads of Halkett and Alan Lithgow. However, the liability for the third East Fife goal wasn’t on them. A nervous-looking Kelly came out but didn’t jump to catch the ball; instead, he stood rooted to the ground, as Insall – who’s quite short in stature – leapt above him to head the ball. Insall, his back to goal, then spun on the spot and smashed the ball into the net. The goalkeeper shouted at the referee, claiming a foul, but he never tried to claim the ball. The furious travelling support lambasted Kelly, themselves not convinced by his desperate shouts.

One problem that Livi failed to address that afternoon was the amount of space between the defence and the goalkeeper. Three centre-backs should be able to handle a single striker. Yet Insall’s pace caused problems. Stranraer’s Cammy Belford was a key factor in keeping his side in the game when they visited Bayview, because he has the confidence in coming out to claim a ball and is comfortable using his feet. All too often that afternoon he had to speed off his line to help his defence and deny Insall. Kelly, however, looked devoid of confidence. After the third goal he remained rooted to his line, almost refusing to come out to handle crosses. That created a huge vacuum for Insall to operate in. East Fife – although not a long-ball outfit – quickly adapted to this. If David Hopkin doesn’t fix this, they won’t be the last.

Talking Points from Scottish Football

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

RANGERS ARE YEARS FROM CHALLENGING CELTIC

Ten-in-a-row: it’s the distant dream which could become a reality for Celtic. It’s the achievement that both Old Firm clubs aim for. It’s the one that would separate them; a defining moment in their historic rivalry. It would be the most important domestic season in a lifetime. Nine is not enough. Jock Stein guided the Hoops to nine consecutive titles during his golden tenure, and David Murray’s millions built Rangers into an unstoppable juggernaut from the late-80s to the mid-90s, a period during which Gers matched that momentous accomplishment. But neither made it to ten. That remains the ‘Promised Land’. But Celtic might be on course to reach it.

The Hoops side that Mark Warburton’s outfit met on Saturday lunchtime was a far different proposition from the anxious and disjointed team that they defeated in the Scottish Cup semi-final. Brendan Rodgers has instilled a refreshed sense of confidence in the side – exemplified by the return to form of Scott Brown and James Forrest – and made some much needed acquisitions to complete Celtic’s team. Kolo Toure looks an assured presence in Celtic’s defence – although it’s not like Efe Ambrose set a high bar – and Scott Sinclair has helped stretch their threat. With Forrest and Sinclair supporting Leigh Griffiths or Moussa Dembele, Celtic are dangerous on all fronts. There are no clear flaws in this team. The same cannot be said for their rivals.

Rangers were lacklustre all over the pitch. Joe Garner continues to look like a waste of £1.5 million, the pedestrian Niko Krancjar couldn’t handle the pace of the game – he was hooked at half-time, and Joey Barton just can’t seem to recapture his best form. Celtic fans also had the pleasure of witnessing the stunningly inept debut performance of Phillipe Senderos. The former Arsenal centre-back spent the game looking second best – even falling on his backside as Moussa Dembele rounded him for his second – and made the senseless decision to commit a blatant handball despite being booked earlier in the game. Mark Warburton had already lost one centre-back, after Rob Kiernan sustained a knock while committing a foul. Rangers hadn’t looked this dismal since the play-off defeat to Motherwell. Any talk of a potential title bid was shushed at Parkhead.

Celtic’s win was so complete that it’s difficult to choose how high a figure Rangers will need to spend just to build a squad capable of challenging. And with the Hoops in the Champions League, and thus collecting all that added revenue, Celtic are miles ahead in terms of finances as well. It could be years before Gers are in a position to battle them for the Premiership. It might just be long enough for Celtic to celebrate ten-in-a-row.

 

IS THERE PRESSURE ON DEREK MCINNES?

Aberdeen’s title ambitions evaporated before the end of August. The Dons laboured in goalless – and dull – draws against St Johnstone and Hearts, and fell to a humbling 4-1 defeat at Parkhead which served as a firm reminder that things had changed at Celtic. While it looked like Derek McInnes had done excellent business in the summer – signing a solid centre-back and goalkeeper, and giving himself options in the three attacking positions – that has failed to translate into on-field success. The Dons aren’t clicking, and the pressure might be building on McInnes.

Aberdeen supporters might look at the recent form of Hearts and their bid to finish second and question their failure to build upon another good season. That’s the downfall of success. Derek McInnes transformed Aberdeen from a side that threatened to sink into anonymity – or at least the Championship – into a title-challenging outfit. For two consecutive seasons the Dons filled the Rangers-shaped void and challenged Celtic. Perhaps McInnes has been too successful. Maybe he’ll be punished for not living up to the expectations that he set.

 

SCOTTISH CHAMPIONSHIP

FALKIRK MIDFIELD IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE

There was understandable concern among Falkirk fans at the beginning of the season. The Bairns had lost Blair Alston to St Johnstone and Will Vaulks to Rotherham United – arguably their two best players. Having come so close to reaching the Premiership – exhaustion coming into effect in a second leg thumping at the hands of Kilmarnock – there was the feeling that they may have missed their best chance of promotion.

One point from three games seemed to confirm those doubts. When a confidence-oozing Queen of the South bested them thanks to a Stephen Dobbie double, Falkirk fans prepared themselves for a season of mid-table mediocrity. However, back-to-back victories, including a 2-0 win over Raith at Stark’s Park, has renewed hope that Falkirk can challenge for the play-offs. The Bairns did an excellent job at stifling Raith and the keeping the attacking duo of Lewis Vaughan and Declan McManus quiet. Craig Sibbald put in a great performance and put through a delightful through ball for the first goal. This could be a big season for him.

 

SCOTTISH LEAGUE TWO

INSALL COULD BE CRUCIAL TO EAST FIFE SURVIVAL

For once, Gary Naysmith didn’t have to spend the summer rebuilding his depleted squad. Promotion from League 2 had offered him respite from overhauling his team for a third straight summer, giving him the chance to bolster, rather than restructure. And it had been a positive start to East Fife’s League One campaign. A point against Albion Rovers and a comfortable 3-0 defeat of Peterhead put them in a good position, and although the club then suffered losses to both Alloa and Brechin, both of those sides are expected to challenge for the title and possess stronger squads than the Methil outfit. One thing, though, was clearly missing from their team: a League One class striker.

Of the 62 goals East Fife scored in their promotion campaign, 30 belonged to Nathan Austin and Jamie Insall. Both loans came to an end in the summer, leaving a void in Naysmith’s side. Paul McManus did a respectable job in the opening games, but he lacks the legs to lead a line as the lone striker, Kevin O’Hara, on loan from Falkirk, has yet to impress, and Chris Duggan, a recruit from Queen’s Park, has been plagued by injuries. Kevin Smith, meanwhile, is more of a left-sided winger than a striker at this stage. East Fife needed the pace and movement of Insall. The striker, though, had made it clear he didn’t seek a return to the club; he wanted to impress Neil Lennon at Hibs. However, the signings of Grant Holt and Brian Graham stunted that aspiration. On deadline day, he returned to Bayview.

His first league appearance back highlighted why East Fife had missed him. With Kevin Smith, Mark Lamont, Kyle Wilkie and Scott Robinson, who operated in a slighter more advanced position than usual, feeding balls in to Insall, he proved to be a constant source of frustration for the centre-back partnership of Steven Bell and Frank McKeown. He continually made blistering runs behind the defence, seeking to beat the offside trap – the one criticism of his performance would be that he was caught out too often. If not for the adventurous Cameron Belford rushing out to challenge Insall on a number of occasions, the score-line would’ve been even larger. Insall’s sheer pace and movement had made an immediate impact. A couple of goals – the second a nonchalant chip over Belford after another defence-splitting run – earned him a deserved Man of the Match nod. If that performance was an indicator of things to come, East Fife will be more than safe come the end of the campaign.

Talking Points from Scottish Football

PREMIERSHIP

LACK OF GOALS A CONCERN FOR ABERDEEN

There’s been a common criticism of Aberdeen over the past couple of seasons. It’s been said that the Dons are too reliant on the contribution of Adam Rooney, and that without his predatory instinct they’d labour in the search for a goal. Simon Church papered over the cracks in the latter stages of the last campaign, but it was clear that Aberdeen, if Derek McInnes was serious about furthering their title ambitions, needed more firepower up-front; someone to ease the pressure on the shoulders of the ginger-haired striker. That came in the form of Jayden Stockley, a striker in the Rooney mould, and the more mobile Miles Storey. Both offer options in attack. However, one wouldn’t have predicted that their inclusion would mean the exclusion of Rooney. The talismanic striker has been limited to 20 minute spells coming off the bench.

The trio of Wes Burns, Storey and Stockley started in the season opener at McDiarmid Park. It was St Johnstone, though, who looked more dangerous in the goalless draw. While McInnes could be pleased that Anthony O’Connor appears to have added some much needed solidity and consistency to his defence, he must’ve been disappointed that his three new attackers looked so impotent.

Against Hearts, McInnes persisted in starting Stockley ahead of Rooney. The result: no goals and one glancing header that dipped over the crossbar. For the second consecutive game Aberdeen were unable to break through a resistant defence. Niall McGinn made a couple of decent runs but did little to test the inexperienced Jack Hamilton, while Wes Burns has shown nothing to suggest that he’s an adequate cover for the recovering Jonny Hayes.

It’s crucial that Aberdeen start firing. Celtic are one point ahead already, and have a game-in-hand after postponing their tie against Partick Thistle in favour of a glamour friendly in Ireland. Rangers are also starting to settle in the league. If the Dons want to challenge the Hoops for the title, or at least fight for second against the Gers, Derek McInnes can’t afford a goal drought.

 

LIAM BOYCE COULD BE BACK TO HIS BEST

Liam Boyce began last season in startling form. The Staggies striker notched seven goals in the first ten games, as County continued their brilliant form from the campaign prior. He tailed off for a spell before another glut came in a six-match run, culminating in a hat-trick against Dundee. He wouldn’t score for another 14 games. He toiled as Alex Schalk ran riot against Celtic, and the League Cup won’t be remembered for his contribution – he came off after an anonymous 59 minutes. With Craig Curran, Brian Graham and Schalk all competing for two starting berths, his form put his position under question. He silenced those queries against Inverness.

On seven minutes he put the Staggies ahead. Curran popped a cross past three red-and-blue shirts, placing the ball square on the forehead of his partner-in-crime. Boyce converted. Not that the inept Inverness defence could’ve made it any easier. Kevin McNaughton watched, motionless, as the ball sailed over his head, and Carl Tremarco, seeing the event unfolding, arrived too late to make up for the centre-half’s error. McNaughton had to go off through injury not long after.

The visitors were on course for a second thanks to the lax defending of the hosts. On 26 minutes, Boyce doubled the Staggies’ slender lead. Richard Foster’s sweeping cross from deep landed in the box, at the feet of the chasing striker. Boyce, with one deft left-foot touch, prodded the ball back to his right, sending a dumbfounded David Raven heading in the opposite direction. It gave him enough time to rest, to drink a coffee, and to pick out the bottom right corner of Owain Fon Williams’ net.

Inverness snatched a disputed goal before half-time and appeared much more settled. County needed another goal to put the game beyond doubt. Boyce stepped up. Chris Routis’ pin-point free-kick found Boyce among a huddle at the far post. Again Inverness were the culprits of their own downfall. Tremarco and Gary Warren had Boyce sandwiched, yet the County striker outleapt both of them to complete his hat-trick.

As much as his hat-trick had to do with Inverness’s incompetent defending, Boyce did an excellent job at getting into the right positions. He fought harder in the air for the third, and showed a sublime touch for the second. It was an imperious display. It might just be the confidence boost he needed to kick-start another productive campaign.

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

DURNAN OR DONALDSON MUST GO

One might underestimate the job Ray McKinnon has on his hands. Dundee United are a Premiership-size club and boast a collection of talents that would walk into most teams in the Championship. But one must only look to Easter Road to see that earning promotion from the second tier at a so-called ‘big club’ is not as simple as it looks. United might have cleared out most of the rot and ditched Mixu, but that doesn’t fix a broken mind-set; time, positive performances, and strong results are the cure for that infection. McKinnon must achieve all three to lift them out of their slumber. But to do so, he must also create strong foundations to build a team on.

Against Dumbarton United lined-up with a back-four of Jamie Robson, Coll Donaldson, Mark Durnan and Lewis Toshney. It’s a centre-back partnership that strikes fear into the hearts of Arabs. And on the banks of the Clyde, the dynamic duo struck again. Durnan dragged Gregor Buchanan to the ground from a corner, giving Mark Docherty the chance to score his third penalty in two games. It could’ve been much worse – a free-kick cannoned off the crossbar.

It came as a surprise that McKinnon kept his faith in the pair. Donaldson is erratic personified. He’ll charge out, leaving gaping holes in the defence, unaware of what’s happening around him, and loses concentration. Durnan, on the other hand, cannot seem to track an opponent. It’s difficult to pick who’s worse. There’s such strong competition. It’s also a strange decision that McKinnon chose both because he has Lewis Toshney, who proved to be a decent centre-half at Raith, out at full-back. It also can’t help the development of Jamie Robson. An inexperienced 18-year-old needs guidance, not Coll Donaldson. United can’t afford both of them dragging the team down. McKinnon must get rid of at least one of them.

 

LEAGUE ONE

STENNY LOSE A ‘SIX POINTER’

It might seem early in the season for talk of ‘six-pointers’, but Queen’s Park visit to Stenhousemuir might’ve been one. Queen’s, despite their promotion, lost Willie Muir and Chris Duggan to East Fife in the summer, and are still in the process of building a squad capable of keeping them in the division. It’s part of the reason the Spiders are regarded as one of the favourites for relegation. Stenhousemuir are another side tipped for the trapdoor. The Warriors came out victorious in the play-offs at the culmination of the 2014-15 campaign, and a late surge saved them last season. But their luck will run out unless results improve. A 2-1 loss at Brechin was not the start they were looking for. While Stranraer and Peterhead are pointless, the former have gone up against Alloa and Livingston – the pair expected to duke it out for the title – and the Blue Toon have also faced the Lions. It’s Stenhousemuir and Queen’s Park who’re expected to struggle over the season. Both will need all the points they can muster, and that’s what made their meeting at Ochilview all the more important.

The Warriors had started off the better side and snatched a lead on 34 minutes. Alan Cook found Stephen Stirling on the edge of the D. The midfielder took one touch, bouncing the ball off the ground, and then fired a driven piledriver off into the top right corner – a magnificent strike to put the hosts ahead. Stenny created more chances than the visitors – six to QP’s five – and looked like building on their slender lead. But football’s given us enough examples of teams being punished for not taking the advantage, and Brown Ferguson’s side are just the latest victim. The Spiders improved in the second-half; one free-kick smashed off the crossbar, and Colin McCabe had to be at his best to stop a handful of decent chances. And on 73 minutes the equaliser came. Stirling and Ryan McGeever both swung for a loose ball in the Stenny box, but the Queen’s Park defender got the initial touch, and Stirling’s foot found flesh instead of leather. McGeever fell to the ground, an agonised expression on his face, as John McKendrick pointed to the spot – the centre-back jumped upon hearing the whistle and started celebrating. Darren Miller fired the ball into the top right corner to level proceedings. It looked like the teams would have to settle for a point; each had a half-chance as the game came to an end. But on 90 minutes, Queen’s Park nicked all three points. Ross Meechan gifted David Galt enough space to find an unmarked Joshua Watt at the far post. Jamie McCormack watched as the ball dipped over his head and only then realised that it had found its intended target. Watt’s clumsy volley bounced off the ground and over McCabe. Furious shouts of ‘concentrate’ could be heard bellowing from the mouth of Ferguson as the visitors celebrated.

Stenhousemuir have perhaps the lowest budget in the division, so Ferguson doesn’t have the tools to attract talents capable of firing them up the league. He must do the best with what little he has. Simple things like concentration, dedication, and organisation will be crucial if their fans harbour hopes of remaining in League One. The next couple of weeks will be tough; a trip to on-form Livingston and a visit from Airdrieonians are unlikely to yield points. Stenhousemuir visit Hampden Park on October 29. It’ll be interesting to see where the two teams are at that point. If Stenny don’t show signs of improvement before then, this could be a long and miserable season for the Warriors.

Ayr United 0-0 Stranraer (3-1 on penalties)

Ayr United will be in the Championship for the first time since 2012 after beating Stranraer on penalties.

Hundreds of Honest Men supporters flooded the pitch after Andy Graham converted from the spot, celebrating United’s first promotion at the ground since 1956.

4,581 had turned out to see who would replace Livingston in next season’s Scottish Championship; it would be over 120 minutes till that question would be answered.

It was a tight affair, and, after no goals and nothing to separate them at the end of 90 minutes, the match entered extra-time. The match continued in the same trend, and it was no surprise to see the game go to penalties.

It was heartbreak for Stranraer, who, after being so resilient for 120 minutes, missed their first three penalties to hand Championship football to Ayr on a plate.

Graham stepped up and converted.

For Ayr, their next summer will be spent preparing for life in the Championship, where they’ll be facing familiar faces in Dunfermline Athletic and fresh ones in Hibernian. For Stranraer, it will be about recuperating from this tough defeat. Either side could’ve progressed on the day, despite their opposing routes to the final.

United had looked to challenge Dunfermline. The Honest Men suffered just one defeat – a 3-0 drubbing from Albion Rovers on the opening day – in their opening 15 matches and claimed an impressive 2-0 win over the Pars at East End Park. But inconsistent form robbed them of that chance. Amazingly, United didn’t draw one of their subsequent 21 games, losing 12 and winning 9, as Peterhead pipped them to second place.

Stranraer, meanwhile, languished at the bottom of the division at Christmas. Brian Reid struggled to replicate the same cohesion his predecessor, Stephen Aitken, had instilled in his over-achieving team. However, a sudden up-turn in form, aided by the return of Willie Gibson, meant Stranraer collected 37 points from their remaining 19 matches, snatching fourth-place ahead of an inconsistent Albion Rovers and a lumbering Airdrieonians.

The clubs also had differing fortunes in their respective semi-final ties. United settled their game against an out-of-sorts Peterhead in the first-leg, claiming a comfortable 4-1 win at Balmoor, before finishing it off 2-1 at Somerset Park. Stranraer’s tie was a much tenser affair. The Blues thumped a shell-shocked Livingston 5-2 at Stair Park, but were then forced into extra-time at the Tony Macaroni Stadium. Goals in the 89^th and 90^th minutes handed Livi a life-line, giving them 30 minutes to save their Championship status. But it was Stranraer who progressed, Liam Dick and Jamie Longworth scoring to send them through to the final.

Stranraer welcomed Ayr to Stair Park on Wednesday evening, when United grabbed an all-important equaliser in the final moments of the game. Marc McGuigan had given the hosts the advantage in the 54^th minute, but in the fifth minute of added-time, Ross Docherty finished a half-volley on the edge of the box to quash Stranraer’s short-lived advantage.

Would it prove to be a crucial moment in the tie?

An anxious roar greeted the referee’s whistle, which marked the end of the minute of silence for Chris Mitchell. The tense atmosphere suited the opening moments of the match.

Stranraer tested Greg Fleming first. Stirling shuffled around two white shirts and rifled the ball at the United net. The experienced Fleming reacted and palmed the ball out for a corner. Then it was United’s turn. Jordan Preston almost punished lackadaisical defending, racing through to go one-on-one with Cameron Belford, but at the final moment Steven Bell put in an excellent sliding challenge to rob Preston of his chance. The striker then forced Belford to produce a quick save, cutting in from the left and firing a driven shot at the near post. The on-loan goalkeeper pounced to push the ball around the post.

After an enthralling opening 15 minutes, the match settled. It became a much tighter affair, both teams searching for half-chances, neither opening up enough at the risk of being caught on the counter-attack. The teams reached half-time of the second-leg in the same state as the beginning of the tie. Nothing could separate Ayr and Stranraer. It would require something special.

The second-half began as the first ended. In a moment that summed up the game, a frustrated Craig Malcolm shouted for more support, fed up at being fed scraps and expected to break the deadlock.

Stirling almost did just that. The Stranraer winger sped into space, left Devlin trailing and cut into the box. A couple of desperate, last-ditch challenges tried to block his path, but he remained calm and dragged the ball around them. With just Fleming stopping him from putting Stranraer on the road to the Championship, Stirling lashed the ball over the crossbar. A dumbfounded McGuigan crumbled to his knees and punched the ground. Stranraer should’ve been ahead.

Despite this setback, Stranraer were ascendant. Ayr were on the ropes. A tense atmosphere surrounded Somerset Park as a desperate United defence tried to clear their lines. A cheer broke out as Fleming rose high to clutch the ball to his chest, ending minutes of bombardment.

United’s best chance since the start of the game came from Preston. The striker pounced on a mistake but failed to capitalise, or test Belford, and fired the ball into the stands.

With ten minutes remaining, the game again came to a stand-still, and soon the match had reached extra-time.

But much like the preceding 90 minutes, there was nothing to separate the sides.

Steven Bell should’ve secured Championship football for Stranraer in the 114^th minute, his header evading Fleming but skimming the edge of post. Patrick Boyle almost punished him for it moments later, the Ayr defender also missing a simple chance.

Gibson had a moment in the final moments, twisting and turning and looking to escape his marker, but his eventual shot missed the target. He put his head in his hands. Andrew Dallas blew the whistle, and the game went to penalties.

Stranraer chose to go first. Paul Cairney stepped up, but his tame effort was caught by Fleming. Preston put Ayr one up. Longworth went next for the Blues, and his effort, much like Cairney’s, also produced a simple save from Fleming. Trouten extended Ayr’s lead.

David Barron needed to score if Stranraer were going to comeback. Instead he produced the laziest shot of the lot. His sluggish shot gave Fleming, who had dived to his right, enough time to stick a leg out to block the shot.

The Ayr fans on the edge of the park, waiting to burst on, had to wait a moment as Ross Docherty’s effort hit the post. But, after Gibson scored Stranraer’s only successful penalty, Graham converted from the spot to send the Ayr fans into a frenzy.

 

Matches to watch out for this weekend

CHAMPIONSHIP: QUEEN OF THE SOUTH V RAITH ROVERS

This could be the match that decides the team that finishes fourth in the Championship. Should Raith Rovers escape Palmerston Park with anything more than a loss and they will be guaranteed a place in the play-offs. It could cap off what’s been an astonishing run for the Kirkcaldy club. Raith have collected 24 points from their last eleven games, lost just once – a 2-0 defeat at Ibrox, and scalped Hibernian when Alan Stubbs’ side visited Stark’s Park a couple of weeks ago. And just last weekend Rangers had to settle for a point. The boisterous travelling support, 3-2 up in added time, the title in their grasp, were silenced as Harry Panayiotou rifled in a late equaliser. What’s more amazing is the sudden goal rush. In this 11 game spell Raith have notched 22 goals; it had taken them all 21 games of the campaign prior to this run to accumulate the same amount. It’s this threat that Queen of the South will have to combat on Saturday.

The Doonhamers themselves haven’t been short of a goal in recent weeks, but, unlike Raith, there’s been little reward for their efforts. James Fowler’s team have scored 17 in their last ten – a rate not dissimilar to Raith’s – but collected just ten points from those outings. Their last couple of games have highlighted their strengths and weaknesses. Against both Rangers and Falkirk the Doonhamers found themselves behind. The Gers took what looked like an unassailable lead, going 4-1 up in the 55^th minute. But Queen of the South battled back and reduced the lead to one; unfortunately time ran out on them before they could snatch a point. Last weekend goals from Blair Alston and John Baird put Falkirk two up, before Derek Lyle and Iain Russell struck back to grab a point against the travelling Bairns.

With just a point needed for Raith to guarantee a top-four finish, both teams are going to be pushing for three points. It should be a thrilling match.

 

 

LEAGUE ONE: COWDENBEATH V BRECHIN CITY

Imagine being Darren Dods last weekend. The Brechin manager watched his side scratch-and-claw to their fifth win in six matches, a 1-0 win over struggling Stenhousemuir, and he must have at least entertained the idea that the result will have lifted his team off the bottom of the table. Not so, I’m afraid. As Brechin claimed a crucial three points against the Warriors, their relegation rivals were also celebrating important wins. Apparently wins are like London buses to League One relegation candidates. Forfar Athletic strolled to a 2-0 win against second-place Peterhead and Cowdenbeath bested third-place Ayr United at Central Park. What were the odds that all three teams would win?

Forfar face the toughest tie of the weekend: a trip to East End Park to visit the champions, Dunfermline. It helps make this tie the most interesting of the round. Should Cowdenbeath claim three points, the Blue Brazil will create a five-point lead over Brechin; if the Hedgemen win they’ll move above Cowdenbeath. Stenhousemuir have been dragged into this relegation scrap as well. The Warriors are in terrible form and are just one point ahead of Cowdenbeath. If they lose at the Excelsior, and either Brechin or Cowdenbeath win, they’ll be edging towards the drop-zone. This is not the time to drop points.

One would imagine that, unlike the Queen of the South v Raith Rovers tie, this will be a tight affair. Neither team can afford to drop points and gift them to their relegation rivals; expect both to defend in numbers and try to sneak three points.

 

 

LEAGUE TWO: BERWICK RANGERS V CLYDE

Speaking of must win games. Clyde have been doing their upmost to hand East Fife the League Two title, losing at home to Arbroath and then letting Montrose score three before snatching a 90^th minute equaliser from the spot. Results last weekend gave the Fifers a four point lead heading into the final four rounds of fixtures. The Bully Wee entertain East Fife at Broadwood next weekend and thus can’t afford to drop points against Berwick Rangers if they still have ambitions of lifting the title. But this is going to be a tough match.

Berwick have the third strongest form in the league. After collecting just 22 points from their opening 22 games of the season, the English club have picked up 18 from their last ten matches. In that time they’ve lost just two games – a 2-1 defeat at Broadwood and a 1-0 loss against Annan Athletic. More impressive is their home form. The Black and Gold are undefeated in their last seven at Shielfield Park. In their last four home games they’ve beaten Elgin City, Stirling Albion, Arbroath and Montrose; it’s as tough a ground to visit as any at the moment.

If East Fife defeat Montrose in Methil and Clyde lose, it will create a seven point gap, with just three games to go. Essentially, any hopes of attaining automatic promotion to League One is over.

Weekend Betting Tips

ELGIN CITY V ANNAN ATHLETIC

With five rounds of matches remaining, it looks as though the race for the League Two title is going to come down to the wire. Last weekend threw up some surprising results. East Fife’s 1-1 draw with Queen’s Park actually widened the Fifers’ lead at the top of the table, as both Clyde and Elgin City fell to defeats to Arbroath and Berwick Rangers respectively. Now just six points separate the top five. No one can afford to slip up.

Annan Athletic looked like they had left it late for a comeback, but last weekend’s results tossed them a lifeline, and the Galabankies stormed to a 5-0 thrashing of Montrose. Elgin, on the other hand, dropped to third after the loss at Shielfield Park. Jim Weir’s team are struggling for form: they’ve won just three of their last ten and lost three-on-the-bounce coming into this crucial game. Both teams need three points.

 

Bet: both teams to score

These games have often been thrilling contests. This match pits the joint-third highest scoring team against the top scoring team – something that’s been reflected in their past meetings. All three of their matches against each other this season have ended with both teams scoring, and two have finished with over 2.5 goals. One would expect that not to change on Saturday, and for the result to be a high-scoring one.

 

Take a chance: both teams to score and Annan to win

Elgin might have lost just one home game this season – against East Fife at the start of March – but Annan are more than capable of becoming the second team to win at Borough Briggs. Jim Chapman’s side ran rampant at Links Park, running out 5-0 victors, as things started clicking back into place for them. If Annan can recreate such a performance this weekend, the points are there’s for the taking.

 

STRANRAER V AIRDRIEONIANS

It’s the fight no one wants to win. Who will finish fourth and grab the third play-off spot? Stranraer have turned their form around since Christmas, when they sat rooted to the bottom of the table, and are currently in prime position to snatch the chance of promotion. However, Airdrieonians and Albion Rovers are still in the chase. The rivals drew last weekend, a result which might’ve left them miles behind, but Stranraer lost out at Somerset Park and the gap remains at three points – and both the Diamonds and Rovers have a game-in-hand. A win for either team at Stair Park on Saturday could play a huge part in deciding who’ll be facing Peterhead, Ayr United and a Championship team – probably Livingston or Dumbarton – for a chance to be in the second tier next season.

 

Bet: Stranraer to win

Ignoring the defeat to Ayr, Stranraer are a team in form. Prior to that loss the Blues had gone undefeated in four, and picked up wins over Stenhousemuir, Albion Rovers and Forfar Athletic. Airdrieonians, meanwhile, are winless in four. Danny Lennon’s team were held by Rovers and Forfar, and were defeated by Peterhead and Brechin City – these results coming after Eddie Wolecki Black suffered a stroke during the 3-1 win over Cowdenbeath at the beginning of March.

 

Take a chance: under 2.5 goals

This is more a reflection on Airdrieonians than Stranraer. Five of their last six games have finished with under 2.5 goals; for Stranraer that figure is three in six. Neither team are high scorers. That should make for a tight contest.

 

RAITH ROVERS V RANGERS

Bet: both teams to score

Normally you’d predict Rangers to steamroll Raith on the path to another three points. But against Falkirk and St Mirren the Gers’ defence conceded three goals in each game, which accounts for 25% of their goals against this season. It’s an astonishing statistic. What’s happening? In both matches Rangers held comfortable leads, and perhaps that’s part of the problem; is the team going to sleep, letting errors slip into their game, because their concentration goes? Can Raith take advantage of this?

The Rovers are one of the in-form teams in Scotland. Ray McKinnon’s side have lost one in their last ten – a 2-0 defeat at Ibrox – and have picked up seven wins. It’s a run of form that’s lifted them into fourth and created a 13 point gap over Greenock Morton. This all began when Raith started scoring goals again. They’ve scored 19 goals in those past ten games; eight in the ten before it.

 

Take a chance: Raith to win

This is about a big a chance one can take betting on Scottish football. It’s a risk betting against either of the Old Firm clubs, but I believe that Rangers’ current defensive woes and Raith’s sparkling form could cause an upset at Stark’s Park. It’s an outside chance, but one worth taking.

Scottish Lower Leagues: Talking Points

SCOTTISH CHAMPIONSHIP: RANGERS ARE GOING TO SLEEP

Rangers are champions in all but name. The Govan giants are 14 points ahead of second place Falkirk and 20 in front of supposed title-rivals Hibernian. Unless there’s another financial mishap, Rangers should be a Premiership club next season. The challenge is over for them. It’s therefore understandable that perhaps the team might suffer from a lack of hunger and focus. It must be hard getting enthusiastic and geed up about a game that has little impact on the league. The one thing on the minds of Rangers supporters at the moment is the impending Scottish Cup semi-final clash against Celtic – you might’ve not heard about it since it’s rarely mentioned. But it’s not just the fans who are focusing on something else. So are Rangers’ defence.

For the second straight game Rangers conceded three goals. Against Falkirk that proved decisive. The Gers opened up Falkirk in the first ten minutes, scoring twice in quick succession as the Bairns struggled to handle the pace and movement of James Tavernier and Lee Wallace. A third goal was wrongly ruled offside, although at the time it appeared to be a decision of little consequence. However, second-half substitutions changed the game, and Falkirk struck back late on to snatch three points. It was an exciting game, even if it did nothing to hinder Rangers’ title ambitions. But this is a period during which Mark Warburton will be assessing his squad.

Wes Foderingham was criticised at the beginning of the season, his uncomfortableness on the ball clashing with Rangers’ passing game and the occasional error creeping into his game. Since then, though, he’s become more confident in the team and should be guaranteed a place in the starting eleven come next season. It should be the same for Lee Wallace and James Tavernier. Although the latter needs to work on his defensive positioning, he offers so much attacking threat that he’s become a crucial part of the system; the former is a much more complete full-back and un-droppable. The concerns are about the centre-back positions. Those concerns, although quietened during Rangers better periods, were raised again against Queen of the South.

Rangers were leading 4-1 after 55 minutes. Harry Forrester turned on the afterburners to burst through the Queens’ defence after Andy Halliday’s slick back-heel and slammed the ball past Robbie Thomson; the visitors then equalised from the spot after Wallace seemingly slipped while chasing Iain Russell and caught the striker; and then three goals in nine minutes looked to have put the game to bed. Lewis Kidd mistimed his clearance to gift Michael O’Halloran space and time to slot in Rangers’ second; a third came from a Halliday over-head kick; and Tavernier capitalised on some poor marking to add a fourth. Then the concentrations levels dropped.

Rangers supporters were still singing ‘we are going up’ as the Doonhamers reduced the lead. An angled cross found Russell in space at the far post, and he drove the ball across the six-yard-box. Tavernier, close to the line, couldn’t touch the ball for fear of knocking it in but Foderingham chose to chase the ball. Wallace tried to keep up with Gary Oliver as Danny Wilson looked on – if only he spent as much time tracking opponents as he does ball-watching – but the attacker had the better of the Rangers left-back and nudged the ball into the net.

Rangers dominated possession and created numerous chances for a fifth but the score remained unchanged till the 90^th minute. Kyle Hutton pushed the ball into the path of Mark Millar, who evaded the challenge of Halliday with a feint, switched to his left-foot, and fired the ball into the bottom-right corner. The amount of space he had after the feint was ludicrous. He was just outside the box yet possessed enough time and space to move and shoot. Not one blue shirt had reacted until after Halliday’s failed sliding challenge.

One can have few criticisms of Rangers from an attacking perspective. There are constantly players making runs behind the defence, little chips and through balls being put into space, and their pace on the flanks in blinding. But if Rangers are to challenge for a top three or four place in the Premiership, or beat Celtic in the semi-finals, these defensive issues need to be addressed.

 

 

SCOTTISH LEAGUE ONE: KEEPING EL BAKHTAOUI THE NEXT CHALLENGE FOR ALLAN JOHNSTON

It was a moment three years in the making. In 2013 the Pars entered administration and dropped out of the Championship; in 2014 they reached the play-off final but suffered a 3-0 hammering at the hands of rivals Cowdenbeath at East End Park; and in 2015 the team finished seventh after a tumultuous campaign. But all of that disappointment and frustration evaporated upon the sound of the referee’s whistle on Saturday. Dunfermline had secured their return in fashion – with five games to spare. It wasn’t expected. Peterhead hadn’t lost a game since the end of October; the Blue Brazil were at the bottom of the table. Most Dunfermline supporters were preparing for a title-party through at Cliftonhill. Instead they got it at East End Park.

Now all eyes are on next season. What can Dunfermline hope to achieve? It’s going to be a tight and competitive division but there’s no reason this team can’t compete for a spot in the top-four. But if that’s going to be achieved, the club need to retain the services of Faissal El Bakhtaoui. He showed why on Saturday.

Eight minutes in he charged to meet Michael Moffat’s driven cross and poked the ball past Graeme Smith. 16 minutes later Gary Fusco offered him far too much space. It looked like El Bakhtaoui had left his sprint too late to meet Jason Talbot’s magnificent cross, but his outstretched right-foot caught the ball and turned it back across the goal into the bottom-left corner. Smith was left stranded as it rolled in. The hat-trick was completed in added time. Paul Joseph Crossan’s cross found El Bakhtaoui in the box, and the Moroccan pulled off a neat volley to secure the title.

El Bakhtaoui has admitted that he doesn’t know where he’ll be next season. Will the Championship be enough to keep the Moroccan at the club? Will a lower-end Premiership side, or even a higher-end Championship outfit, swoop in to lure the 23-year-old.

 

 

SCOTTISH LEAGUE TWO: ANOTHER UNPREDICTABLE WEEKEND

Saturday should have marked the end of East Fife’s brief spell at the top of the table. Queen’s Park put in a solid performance at Bayview, limiting the recently free-scoring Fifers to a handful of chances, and fully deserved at least a point – perhaps even three. Although East Fife could be pleased with a point against a team they’ve often struggled against, it was thought that the draw would have seen them slip down the table. Both Clyde and Elgin City had a chance to usurp the Methil outfit. Instead that lead’s been increased to two points. Both teams lost.

The Bully Wee took a quick one-nil lead at Broadwood. Scott McLaughlin danced around an onrushing Allan Fleming and pulled the ball back to Jordan Kirkpatrick, the Dumbarton loanee, for the debutant to fire in from close-range. However, a quick-fire double quashed any hopes of grabbing first place. Bobby Linn converted from the spot after Scott Durie’s poor challenge, and Ricky Little rifled in a second two minutes later.

Elgin, on the other hand, were the latest victims of Blair Henderson and Berwick Rangers. The Black and Gold have won four of their last six, with their lanky striker notching six goals in those matches. The Moray club are in a poor run themselves at the moment. It’s just one win in six, as the slide down the table continues.

With five rounds of games remaining, and all teams on the same number of matches, it means all of the remaining games are crucial and possible title-deciders. It’s also increasingly difficult to predict who will win. East Fife’s trip to Arbroath would have been a foregone conclusion a month ago, but the Angus club are putting in the odd performance since Dick Campbell replaced Todd Lumsden as manager. Clyde should win at home to Montrose. Annan’s trip to Elgin should be an exciting affair; Stirling’s visit to Hampden Park less so. Both those ties are impossible to predict.

Weekend Betting Tips

Greenock Morton v Raith Rovers

Bet: Over 2.5 goals

Raith have created a significant gap between them and their rivals for fourth. The Kirkcaldy club have won six of their last eight, and scored 16 goals in the process. They now have a ten point cushion over fifth place Greenock Morton. This game could all-but-guarantee their play-off status.

For this match I’m focusing on goals. While just four of those last eight matches have finished with over 2.5 goals, their last game against Morton ended 3-2, as Ryan Hardie capitalised on a goal-mouth scramble to give Raith three points in the 89^th minute. It’s also been a strange spell for Morton. Jim Duffy’s side have been quite tough operators this season; difficult to break down but not the most consistent scorers. However, five of their last six games have ended with over 2.5 goals. Both teams seem to be involved in high-scoring matches at the moment. This could be a thrilling contest.

 

Take a chance: Raith Rovers to win and both teams to score

As their last match ended 3-2, and neither team seems capable of keeping a clean sheet at the moment, I’m going to say that there’s a good chance both teams will score. On top of that I’m predicting Raith to leave Cappielow with three points. While both teams are in good form, Ray McKinnon’s side are high on confidence after besting Hibernian – although at the moment I’m not sure how difficult that is.

 

 

Stenhousemuir v Forfar Athletic

Bet: Forfar to win

The battle to avoid the drop is on. It looked like a three-way scrap between Cowdenbeath, who currently occupy the bottom spot, Brechin City, a team in form, and Forfar Athletic. That three could soon become four, though. Stenhousemuir are in danger of being dragged into this dogfight. The Warriors were in contention for a promotion play-off place earlier in the season but five defeats in their last six matches has left them stranded as the catching relegation-threatened teams catch up. Just three points separate them and Forfar and Brechin. Although the Hedgemen have been in fine form in the past few weeks, a trip to title-chasing Dunfermline makes it unlikely they’ll be collecting any points on Saturday. Forfar, on the other hand, have the chance to go seventh if they beat Stenhousemuir. This could be a crucial game for both clubs.

 

Take a chance: Ryan to score

Andy Ryan’s been both brilliant and productive for Forfar since his arrival. The 21-year-old has added some much needed pace and mobility to their ageing team and he’s been a consistent goal-scorer. He’s scored in six of his 11 appearances, including a double against Ayr United last Saturday and one against Cowdenbeath the week before that. Against the weakest defence in the division – Stenny have shipped 69 goals – Ryan’s got an excellent chance of getting on the score-sheet.

 

 

Clyde v Arbroath

Bet: Clyde to win

Clyde are finding form at just the right time. The Cumbernauld club have stuttered a couple of times this season but are on a great run of results at the moment. Four straight victories have lifted them to second in the table, one point behind league leaders East Fife. With Elgin City going through an inconsistent spell it could come down to Barry Ferguson’s men and the Fifers in the race for the title and automatic promotion. With East Fife in tremendous form, Clyde can’t afford to slip.

Arbroath, on the other hand, have little to fight for. The Angus club are in abysmal form, having picked up just five points from their last nine matches, and if not for East Stirlingshire’s dismal form they’d be fighting off possible relegation.

 

Take a chance: Both teams to score

This one is the most unlikely of the six bets, but there is reasoning behind it. Clyde, although in good form, don’t look unbeatable. While East Fife are dominating teams, the Bully Wee are scraping wins. One goal or fewer has separated them and their opponents in eight of their last ten matches. While this doesn’t necessarily mean that Arbroath will score, it could mean a tighter game than some might predict.

Scottish Lower Leagues: Talking Points

East Fife’s form is down to more than just Nathan Austin

Nathan Austin’s pre-contract agreement came as no surprise to East Fife supporters after it was announced he’d be joining Falkirk at the end of the season. Travelling Motherwell fans had shouted ‘sign him up’ at Ian Baraclough and given him a standing ovation after he gave Louis Laing a torrid time in the second round of the League Cup – bigger clubs had started to take notice of the talents of the Fifers’ lanky striker. Scouts were starting to appear more regularly at Bayview. Back then he was a standout player in a dysfunctional team.

But East Fife’s form has improved drastically in the second-half of the season. For the second straight summer Gary Naysmith rebuilt his team from scratch and that’s been reflected in East Fife’s poor form at the start of the 14-15 and 15-16 campaigns. But around Christmas the team started to gel. Before then the Methil club had won just six of 17 games; they’ve been victorious in all but three of their 13 league matches since then. Austin has scored 11 in those 13 games. He’s undoubtedly one of the most effective players in the league. It would be fair to say that Naysmith will have a tough challenge on his hands in replacing Austin. And yet in their last two games, neither of which Austin has started due to injury, the Fifers have looked formidable going forward.

Jamie Insall has been excellent – if a little inconsistent – during his loan spell from Hibs. He’s a hard worker and has bags of pace, and if he can just be a little more productive in front of goal he’ll be a well-rounded striker. He grabbed a brace against Annan Athletic in Austin’s absence, including a thunderous half-volley, and on-form looks a real danger. There’s no doubt that Naysmith would love to get him back at Bayview next season if he can.

Kevin Smith has also started to rediscover his best form since his return from injury. The East Fife captain is at his best alongside a more lethal striker like Austin or Insall. He’s excellent at holding up the ball and springing a quick counter-attack, and his movement on the ball in-and-around-the-box can cause havoc. He’s an excellent strike partner to have.

There’s also Kyle Wilkie, and the contribution he’s made this season. The attacking midfield is a technically gifted wizard – one of the most skilled players in League 2. I’d even go as far as to say he’s been East Fife’s best player this season. His creativity and invention has helped Austin reach those lofty figures, and he’s also chipped in with nine goals of his own. Unfortunately, ignoring loanees and Austin, he’s the one first-team regular who’s not signed up for next season. It would be a huge blow for East Fife to lose him.

East Fife can get by without Austin – they’ve proven that in their last two games – but replacing Wilkie and Insall, if neither returns next season, would be almost impossible for Naysmith. But for now the Fifers can only focus on their promotion push. Next weekend Queen’s Park, who beat them 3-0 at Hampden Park just a few weeks ago, visit Bayview, as East Fife look to break away from Elgin City, Clyde, Annan and the Glasgow club.

 

Stenhousemuir could be dragged into a relegation battle

It’s tight at the bottom of League One. Brechin City’s fourth win on the bounce lifted them off the bottom of the table for the first time since Boxing Day, meaning Cowdenbeath, who lost out to rivals Dunfermline, replaced them. The Blue Brazil are on 29 points, and both Brechin and Forfar Athletic, who claimed a 3-1 win over a stuttering Ayr United, are on 30. For a long time it seemed that Brechin were destined for League Two, and Forfar and Cowdenbeath would fight it out to avoid the play-offs. However, with Brechin’s excellent run and Forfar picking up the odd point in recent weeks, it could turn into a four-horse race.

Stenhousemuir’s form is collapsing at just the wrong time. 26 points from the first 19 matches of the season had put them in contention for the promotion play-offs, especially as Albion Rovers, Stranraer and Airdrieonians also struggled for consistency. However, since the turn of the year the Warriors have picked up eight points from 11 games. It’s left them drifting from the promotion chasing pack, and instead put them within reach of the relegation threatened teams. Brown Ferguson will also be concerned about their current run of results – one point from six matches. His side are now just three points above the play-off relegation place.

Stenhousemuir welcome Forfar to Ochilview next weekend, before a trip to Glebe Park seven days later. If the Angus clubs beat the Warriors, Stenhousemuir could find themselves in a lot of trouble.

 

Stephen Aitken is starting to come under pressure

The Dumbarton job is one of the toughest in Scottish football. The Sons proud themselves on being the best part-time team in Scotland, achieving over the odds in a division mostly made up of full-time clubs. For the most part Dumbarton supporters are a reasonable bunch. They understand the limitations placed on the manager. He has a restricted budget and can only attract players who are willing to drop to part-time. All Dumbarton fans ask for is decent football and not to be relegated. Ian Murray did the latter, if not quite the former, and Dumbarton fans weren’t over fussed about his departure for St. Mirren last summer. Stephen Aitken had done a magnificent job at Stranraer, taking one of the smallest sides in League One to the brink of promotion – the Stair Park club finished two points behind title winners Greenock Morton and crashed out of the play-offs. It looked like a positive appointment.

But things haven’t quite worked out this season. Performances haven’t improved and Dumbarton find themselves creeping ever closer to the relegation play-off place. Livingston sit five points behind the Sons with seven games remaining. Although Aitken is five points behind the 34 that Murray’s side reached last season, he’s beginning to come under increasing pressure from the Dumbarton supporters, and after last weekend’s performance it’s no wonder.

It’s often hard to judge the flow of the game going by highlights. That wasn’t the case for Dumbarton’s trip to Palmerston Park to visit Queen of the South. I wouldn’t implore any Dumbarton fans to watch the highlights unless they count sadomasochism as a hobby. It’s one goal after another. The same music being blasted out time-and-time again as the Doonhamers hammer Dumbarton into submission. It ended 6-0. It’s been five years since Dumbarton last lost by six to a team not called Rangers – to Brechin City by the way. The calls for Aitken to go in the summer increased dramatically after that result.

Weekend Betting Tips

Dundee United v Dundee

Bet: Both teams to score

Is this the most important Dundee derby in years? Dundee have the chance to increase their odds of a top-six finish and torpedo Dundee United’s survival hopes in one game. The Arabs are in desperate need of three points after back-to-back defeats to Aberdeen and Motherwell derailed their bid to close the gap on Kilmarnock. While Killie are in a poor state themselves at the moment, Mixu Paatelainen will be more than aware that one win for Lee Clark’s side could create a sizeable lead that might prove too difficult to close. Dundee are in no great shakes either. The Dees are winless in four. With things so tight in mid-table, three points could lift them back into contention for a top-four finish with a game-in-hand. Both Dundee clubs have something to fight for. This is about more than bragging rights. It could end up being the last league clash between the two Dundee rivals for some time.

That’s part of the reason I’m going for both teams to score. The other part behind my reasoning is that these Dundee derbies are usually tasty affairs – both teams have scored in four of their last five meetings. Dundee’s current defensive record is impressive – they’ve conceded two goals in their last five matches – but United will be fired up for this encounter.

 

Take a chance: Blair Spittal to score

United’s diminutive winger has made quite the impact in the last three derbies. He added the third in United’s 3-0 rout on the final day of the 2014-15 season; he scored twice in three minutes to give the Arabs a two-goal cushion in August – a lead United threw away; and he opened the scoring at Dens Park in their last meeting. His lightning pace could be a real problem for Kevin Holt.

 

 

Falkirk v Rangers

Bet: Under 2.5 goals

Watching Falkirk can be a dull task. The Bairns are the Barcelona of Stirlingshire – more specifically 2008-12 Barca – and Peter Houston is the Scottish Pep Guardiola. The less fashionable Falkirk manager has transformed his side into a possession-based outfit that pass their opponents to sleep and then go in for the kill. Mark Kerr is very much Xavi in this analogy. Unfortunately it can make for boring viewing. Last weekend’s trip to Dumbarton – as featured on BBC ALBA – put both the Sons and the viewing audience to sleep. Both goals came from the spot – I switched off one minute before Gary Fleming’s 90^th minute equaliser – as Falkirk had to settle for a point. In fact ten of their last 12 matches have featured fewer than 2.5 goals. That includes their 1-0 defeat at Ibrox at the end of January.

 

Take a chance: Kenny Miller to score anytime

There were some concerns about how Rangers would handle the Martin Waghorn’s injury. Where would the goals come from? It’s proven to be the perfect opportunity for Kenny Miller to prove he’s still got it. In his last 13 apperances he’s contributed nine goals. Against Greenock Morton he notched a double as Rangers came from behind to seal a 3-1 victory. If he leads the line against Falkirk expect him to be the danger-man.

 

 

Brechin City v Albion Rovers

Bet: Brechin City to win

The Hedgemen have an opportunity this weekend to come off the bottom of the League One table for the first time since Boxing Day. It’s been a rather miraculous run of form. Darren Dods’ side have strung together three consecutive wins – defeats of Airdrieonians, Ayr United and relegation rivals Forfar Athletic – and are pushing the Loons and Cowdenbeath for League One survival. Although Stenhousemuir could still be dragged into a possible relegation scrap, it appears that the battle is between the three. This weekend Forfar and the Blue Brazil face difficult visits from Ayr United and Dunfermline respectively. Brechin welcome play-off candidates Albion Rovers to Glebe Park.

Perhaps I’m getting too swept up in the moment. Brechin’s turn in form came very sudden and could be extinguished just as quickly. However, there’s also the chance that positive momentum could spur them on against the struggling Coatbridge outfit. Rovers have picked up a miserable 11 points from 13 matches since mid-December and suffered a 1-0 home defeat from Stranraer last weekend. Current form suggests Brechin should win.

 

Take a chance: Both teams NOT to score

This might be pushing my luck. I’m basing this on Brechin’s current form. Not only have Dods’ team won three successive games, but they’ve also kept three successive clean sheets for the first time in the league since 2010. It’s an amazing achievement considering their horrendous form the rest of the season. Rovers are also not a team who score a lot of goals. They’ve scored just 31 goals in 29 games – the second fewest in the division after Stranraer.