Scottish Lower Leagues: Talking Points

SCOTTISH CHAMPIONSHIP: RANGERS ARE GOING TO SLEEP

Rangers are champions in all but name. The Govan giants are 14 points ahead of second place Falkirk and 20 in front of supposed title-rivals Hibernian. Unless there’s another financial mishap, Rangers should be a Premiership club next season. The challenge is over for them. It’s therefore understandable that perhaps the team might suffer from a lack of hunger and focus. It must be hard getting enthusiastic and geed up about a game that has little impact on the league. The one thing on the minds of Rangers supporters at the moment is the impending Scottish Cup semi-final clash against Celtic – you might’ve not heard about it since it’s rarely mentioned. But it’s not just the fans who are focusing on something else. So are Rangers’ defence.

For the second straight game Rangers conceded three goals. Against Falkirk that proved decisive. The Gers opened up Falkirk in the first ten minutes, scoring twice in quick succession as the Bairns struggled to handle the pace and movement of James Tavernier and Lee Wallace. A third goal was wrongly ruled offside, although at the time it appeared to be a decision of little consequence. However, second-half substitutions changed the game, and Falkirk struck back late on to snatch three points. It was an exciting game, even if it did nothing to hinder Rangers’ title ambitions. But this is a period during which Mark Warburton will be assessing his squad.

Wes Foderingham was criticised at the beginning of the season, his uncomfortableness on the ball clashing with Rangers’ passing game and the occasional error creeping into his game. Since then, though, he’s become more confident in the team and should be guaranteed a place in the starting eleven come next season. It should be the same for Lee Wallace and James Tavernier. Although the latter needs to work on his defensive positioning, he offers so much attacking threat that he’s become a crucial part of the system; the former is a much more complete full-back and un-droppable. The concerns are about the centre-back positions. Those concerns, although quietened during Rangers better periods, were raised again against Queen of the South.

Rangers were leading 4-1 after 55 minutes. Harry Forrester turned on the afterburners to burst through the Queens’ defence after Andy Halliday’s slick back-heel and slammed the ball past Robbie Thomson; the visitors then equalised from the spot after Wallace seemingly slipped while chasing Iain Russell and caught the striker; and then three goals in nine minutes looked to have put the game to bed. Lewis Kidd mistimed his clearance to gift Michael O’Halloran space and time to slot in Rangers’ second; a third came from a Halliday over-head kick; and Tavernier capitalised on some poor marking to add a fourth. Then the concentrations levels dropped.

Rangers supporters were still singing ‘we are going up’ as the Doonhamers reduced the lead. An angled cross found Russell in space at the far post, and he drove the ball across the six-yard-box. Tavernier, close to the line, couldn’t touch the ball for fear of knocking it in but Foderingham chose to chase the ball. Wallace tried to keep up with Gary Oliver as Danny Wilson looked on – if only he spent as much time tracking opponents as he does ball-watching – but the attacker had the better of the Rangers left-back and nudged the ball into the net.

Rangers dominated possession and created numerous chances for a fifth but the score remained unchanged till the 90^th minute. Kyle Hutton pushed the ball into the path of Mark Millar, who evaded the challenge of Halliday with a feint, switched to his left-foot, and fired the ball into the bottom-right corner. The amount of space he had after the feint was ludicrous. He was just outside the box yet possessed enough time and space to move and shoot. Not one blue shirt had reacted until after Halliday’s failed sliding challenge.

One can have few criticisms of Rangers from an attacking perspective. There are constantly players making runs behind the defence, little chips and through balls being put into space, and their pace on the flanks in blinding. But if Rangers are to challenge for a top three or four place in the Premiership, or beat Celtic in the semi-finals, these defensive issues need to be addressed.

 

 

SCOTTISH LEAGUE ONE: KEEPING EL BAKHTAOUI THE NEXT CHALLENGE FOR ALLAN JOHNSTON

It was a moment three years in the making. In 2013 the Pars entered administration and dropped out of the Championship; in 2014 they reached the play-off final but suffered a 3-0 hammering at the hands of rivals Cowdenbeath at East End Park; and in 2015 the team finished seventh after a tumultuous campaign. But all of that disappointment and frustration evaporated upon the sound of the referee’s whistle on Saturday. Dunfermline had secured their return in fashion – with five games to spare. It wasn’t expected. Peterhead hadn’t lost a game since the end of October; the Blue Brazil were at the bottom of the table. Most Dunfermline supporters were preparing for a title-party through at Cliftonhill. Instead they got it at East End Park.

Now all eyes are on next season. What can Dunfermline hope to achieve? It’s going to be a tight and competitive division but there’s no reason this team can’t compete for a spot in the top-four. But if that’s going to be achieved, the club need to retain the services of Faissal El Bakhtaoui. He showed why on Saturday.

Eight minutes in he charged to meet Michael Moffat’s driven cross and poked the ball past Graeme Smith. 16 minutes later Gary Fusco offered him far too much space. It looked like El Bakhtaoui had left his sprint too late to meet Jason Talbot’s magnificent cross, but his outstretched right-foot caught the ball and turned it back across the goal into the bottom-left corner. Smith was left stranded as it rolled in. The hat-trick was completed in added time. Paul Joseph Crossan’s cross found El Bakhtaoui in the box, and the Moroccan pulled off a neat volley to secure the title.

El Bakhtaoui has admitted that he doesn’t know where he’ll be next season. Will the Championship be enough to keep the Moroccan at the club? Will a lower-end Premiership side, or even a higher-end Championship outfit, swoop in to lure the 23-year-old.

 

 

SCOTTISH LEAGUE TWO: ANOTHER UNPREDICTABLE WEEKEND

Saturday should have marked the end of East Fife’s brief spell at the top of the table. Queen’s Park put in a solid performance at Bayview, limiting the recently free-scoring Fifers to a handful of chances, and fully deserved at least a point – perhaps even three. Although East Fife could be pleased with a point against a team they’ve often struggled against, it was thought that the draw would have seen them slip down the table. Both Clyde and Elgin City had a chance to usurp the Methil outfit. Instead that lead’s been increased to two points. Both teams lost.

The Bully Wee took a quick one-nil lead at Broadwood. Scott McLaughlin danced around an onrushing Allan Fleming and pulled the ball back to Jordan Kirkpatrick, the Dumbarton loanee, for the debutant to fire in from close-range. However, a quick-fire double quashed any hopes of grabbing first place. Bobby Linn converted from the spot after Scott Durie’s poor challenge, and Ricky Little rifled in a second two minutes later.

Elgin, on the other hand, were the latest victims of Blair Henderson and Berwick Rangers. The Black and Gold have won four of their last six, with their lanky striker notching six goals in those matches. The Moray club are in a poor run themselves at the moment. It’s just one win in six, as the slide down the table continues.

With five rounds of games remaining, and all teams on the same number of matches, it means all of the remaining games are crucial and possible title-deciders. It’s also increasingly difficult to predict who will win. East Fife’s trip to Arbroath would have been a foregone conclusion a month ago, but the Angus club are putting in the odd performance since Dick Campbell replaced Todd Lumsden as manager. Clyde should win at home to Montrose. Annan’s trip to Elgin should be an exciting affair; Stirling’s visit to Hampden Park less so. Both those ties are impossible to predict.

Can East Fife win the League Two title?

The race for the League Two title – and automatic promotion – is coming to a conclusion. It could be a photo-finish. As the remaining games are whittled down, one team-after-another is eliminated from the race. Stirling Albion pulled up after three defeats on the bounce. Annan Athletic might have left it too late for a surge. With six hurdles remaining, four teams are still in the race: Queen’s Park, Elgin City, Clyde, and East Fife. And it’s the Methil club who are on the brink of a return to League One.

It’s not been smooth sailing for Gary Naysmith. The East Fife manager – and left-back – has suffered his fair share of disappointments during his tenure; experiences which should stand him in good stead when he’s offered a chance at a bigger club – something most supporters expect to happen soon.

When he arrived at the club in late October 2013, he was initially signed up as player-assistant manager to Willie Aitchison. He lasted less than a month in that role. Aitchison resigned as the Fifers floundered at the bottom of League One, and Naysmith was given temporary charge. Less than a month later he was offered the job. Despite his best efforts the club were relegated from League One after losing out to Stirling Albion in the play-offs, with two late goals giving the Binos a 3-2 aggregate win. He had to oversee a complete overhaul of the squad. One year later he was doing the same thing again. Defeat to Stenhousemuir in the play-offs meant East Fife would be spending a second season in League Two, and he again had to replace most of his first-team. During this short-spell he’d overseen one relegation, two play-offs disappointments, and two team overhauls. He hadn’t been the luckiest manager.

But that luck might be changing – although it didn’t for the first-half of the campaign. The problem with a complete squad overhaul is that it takes time for the team to gel. It’s something that hindered East Fife’s progress for the first-half of the season. The Fifers had a decent start in both the league and the cups. Falkirk needed two 90^th minute goals to beat East Fife in Challenge Cup; Dumbarton lost out on penalties in the first round of the League Cup; and tiredness cost them in the second round as Motherwell came from a goal behind to eliminate them in extra-time. But after a positive start their form started to dip. Between the beginning of October and Christmas East Fife won one of eleven games, including a 1-0 defeat at Stirling Albion that sent them crashing out of the Scottish Cup. After 17 league games East Fife sat 6^th in the table, nine points off league leaders Annan Athletic. Just like 12 months before, Naysmith was coming under a little bit of pressure. He needed results.

For some teams there’s a change in formation or ideology, or a new player or manager coming in, that coincides with a sudden upturn in form. That wasn’t the case at East Fife. There was no defining moment. Something just clicked. Since Christmas the Fifers have won ten of their 13 league matches, and, thanks to the inconsistent form of the sides around them, have gone top. And it feels like they keep improving. Since stumbling and losing 3-0 at Queen’s Park the Methil side recorded a 3-1 win at Borough Briggs – the first team to beat Elgin at their ground this season – a 4-2 thrashing of Annan Athletic, and a 6-0 humping of Stirling Albion last Saturday. These last two results were achieved without Nathan Austin starting, who’s probably first choice for League Two Player of the Season.

There are parallels between Austin and Naysmith. Austin didn’t convince at first. He signed from Leven United in 2013 and made his debut in a substitute appearance against Forfar Athletic. There was untapped potential but he needed time to develop. He had pace but looked clumsy and could drift out of games. His finishing instincts also didn’t come until much later. It took him till his 17^th league appearance to open his account for the 2014-15 season before racking up ten in his remaining 18 games. Four of those came in a breakthrough match at Borough Briggs. Austin pounced on a rebounded save to break the deadlock; two minutes later he tapped in from close-range; and soon after that his headed effort left Ross Laidlaw glued to his line – he’d completed the perfect hat-trick in 35 minutes. He then added a fourth in the second-half. That was a glimpse of what was to come the following season.

He highlighted that talent against Motherwell in the League Cup second round. Austin ran Louis Laing ragged that evening, tormenting the ‘Well centre-back. Then in the 60^th minute he gave East Fife a deserved lead. Kyle Wilkie snatched the ball off Laing and passed to Austin, who curled it into the bottom corner. When the striker was taken-off the travelling Motherwell support gave him a standing ovation and shouted ‘sign him up’ at Ian Baraclough. Austin had earned the attention of the bigger clubs.

In January it was announced Austin would be joining Falkirk. The news came as no surprise to East Fife fans – it had been a matter of when he’d be leaving, not if, for some time. For some players that might be the beginning of a downward turn. Although he’d be loaned to East Fife for the remainder of the season he could have easily been distracted by his impending move. But he’s remained focused and improved. His goal-tally continues to rise. And he’s not just one who scores in gluts. He’s scored in half of his 28 appearances, and 21 in total. Some of those have been crucial – 16 points can be attributed to his goals. His contribution to East Fife’s promotion ambitions is immeasurable. Had he not been loaned back to Bayview, the Fifers wouldn’t be in prime position to secure automatic promotion. But by no means is he the only one making a contribution.

If not for Austin’s blistering form, Kyle Wilkie would be regarded as the stand-out player for East Fife this season. The attacking midfielder has been important in the striker’s goal-scoring form. He’s one of the most technically skilled players in the division; his first-touch, movement and vision make him a constant frustration for defences. He can dance past a defender, slip a through ball into space, or just hold possession in the final third, but most importantly, he’s consistent. There’s rarely a game he’s not making an impact on. He’s scored nine goals and assisted many more.

Another reason that East Fife aren’t struggling for goals is the fact that they have options up-front in Kevin Smith and Jamie Insall. The latter, on loan from Hibs, is incredibly hard-working and a tireless runner, attributes that don’t go unappreciated at this level. He’s also lethal when he’s on-form and confident. He stepped up against Annan when Austin missed the game due to injury, scoring a double, including a thunderous half-volley. Smith is a different type of striker. The East Fife captain is more of a centre-forward, working around Austin and Insall, creating chances. While Austin is more effective against higher-lines, sitting on the shoulder and looking for a through ball to run on to, Smith is more dangerous on the counter. Numerous times I’ve seen him kick-start a counter-attack from an opposition corner, receiving the ball from a defender, turning, and running up to the byline. His movements on the ball often leave defenders for dead.

It’s therefore unfortunate that Naysmith might have to replace a majority of this attack in the summer. Austin is headed to Falkirk; Insall will return to Easter Road after his loan ends; and Wilkie has is yet to sign a contract extension. One positive for Naysmith is that most of his first-time have signed contract extensions. Although he faces the difficult task of replacing Austin, at least he won’t have to rebuild his squad from scratch for a third year running.

But for now all of East Fife’s attention is on the league. Today Queen’s Park visit Bayview, in what is likely to be one of the toughest remaining fixtures for Naysmith’s side. After that, the one game that stands out is a visit to Broadwood to face Clyde. The Bully Wee are one point behind the league leaders heading into this weekend’s run of fixtures, and Barry Ferguson’s side are also in-form. It’s a match that could decide the league.

Weekend Betting Tips

Greenock Morton v Raith Rovers

Bet: Over 2.5 goals

Raith have created a significant gap between them and their rivals for fourth. The Kirkcaldy club have won six of their last eight, and scored 16 goals in the process. They now have a ten point cushion over fifth place Greenock Morton. This game could all-but-guarantee their play-off status.

For this match I’m focusing on goals. While just four of those last eight matches have finished with over 2.5 goals, their last game against Morton ended 3-2, as Ryan Hardie capitalised on a goal-mouth scramble to give Raith three points in the 89^th minute. It’s also been a strange spell for Morton. Jim Duffy’s side have been quite tough operators this season; difficult to break down but not the most consistent scorers. However, five of their last six games have ended with over 2.5 goals. Both teams seem to be involved in high-scoring matches at the moment. This could be a thrilling contest.

 

Take a chance: Raith Rovers to win and both teams to score

As their last match ended 3-2, and neither team seems capable of keeping a clean sheet at the moment, I’m going to say that there’s a good chance both teams will score. On top of that I’m predicting Raith to leave Cappielow with three points. While both teams are in good form, Ray McKinnon’s side are high on confidence after besting Hibernian – although at the moment I’m not sure how difficult that is.

 

 

Stenhousemuir v Forfar Athletic

Bet: Forfar to win

The battle to avoid the drop is on. It looked like a three-way scrap between Cowdenbeath, who currently occupy the bottom spot, Brechin City, a team in form, and Forfar Athletic. That three could soon become four, though. Stenhousemuir are in danger of being dragged into this dogfight. The Warriors were in contention for a promotion play-off place earlier in the season but five defeats in their last six matches has left them stranded as the catching relegation-threatened teams catch up. Just three points separate them and Forfar and Brechin. Although the Hedgemen have been in fine form in the past few weeks, a trip to title-chasing Dunfermline makes it unlikely they’ll be collecting any points on Saturday. Forfar, on the other hand, have the chance to go seventh if they beat Stenhousemuir. This could be a crucial game for both clubs.

 

Take a chance: Ryan to score

Andy Ryan’s been both brilliant and productive for Forfar since his arrival. The 21-year-old has added some much needed pace and mobility to their ageing team and he’s been a consistent goal-scorer. He’s scored in six of his 11 appearances, including a double against Ayr United last Saturday and one against Cowdenbeath the week before that. Against the weakest defence in the division – Stenny have shipped 69 goals – Ryan’s got an excellent chance of getting on the score-sheet.

 

 

Clyde v Arbroath

Bet: Clyde to win

Clyde are finding form at just the right time. The Cumbernauld club have stuttered a couple of times this season but are on a great run of results at the moment. Four straight victories have lifted them to second in the table, one point behind league leaders East Fife. With Elgin City going through an inconsistent spell it could come down to Barry Ferguson’s men and the Fifers in the race for the title and automatic promotion. With East Fife in tremendous form, Clyde can’t afford to slip.

Arbroath, on the other hand, have little to fight for. The Angus club are in abysmal form, having picked up just five points from their last nine matches, and if not for East Stirlingshire’s dismal form they’d be fighting off possible relegation.

 

Take a chance: Both teams to score

This one is the most unlikely of the six bets, but there is reasoning behind it. Clyde, although in good form, don’t look unbeatable. While East Fife are dominating teams, the Bully Wee are scraping wins. One goal or fewer has separated them and their opponents in eight of their last ten matches. While this doesn’t necessarily mean that Arbroath will score, it could mean a tighter game than some might predict.

Scottish Lower Leagues: Talking Points

East Fife’s form is down to more than just Nathan Austin

Nathan Austin’s pre-contract agreement came as no surprise to East Fife supporters after it was announced he’d be joining Falkirk at the end of the season. Travelling Motherwell fans had shouted ‘sign him up’ at Ian Baraclough and given him a standing ovation after he gave Louis Laing a torrid time in the second round of the League Cup – bigger clubs had started to take notice of the talents of the Fifers’ lanky striker. Scouts were starting to appear more regularly at Bayview. Back then he was a standout player in a dysfunctional team.

But East Fife’s form has improved drastically in the second-half of the season. For the second straight summer Gary Naysmith rebuilt his team from scratch and that’s been reflected in East Fife’s poor form at the start of the 14-15 and 15-16 campaigns. But around Christmas the team started to gel. Before then the Methil club had won just six of 17 games; they’ve been victorious in all but three of their 13 league matches since then. Austin has scored 11 in those 13 games. He’s undoubtedly one of the most effective players in the league. It would be fair to say that Naysmith will have a tough challenge on his hands in replacing Austin. And yet in their last two games, neither of which Austin has started due to injury, the Fifers have looked formidable going forward.

Jamie Insall has been excellent – if a little inconsistent – during his loan spell from Hibs. He’s a hard worker and has bags of pace, and if he can just be a little more productive in front of goal he’ll be a well-rounded striker. He grabbed a brace against Annan Athletic in Austin’s absence, including a thunderous half-volley, and on-form looks a real danger. There’s no doubt that Naysmith would love to get him back at Bayview next season if he can.

Kevin Smith has also started to rediscover his best form since his return from injury. The East Fife captain is at his best alongside a more lethal striker like Austin or Insall. He’s excellent at holding up the ball and springing a quick counter-attack, and his movement on the ball in-and-around-the-box can cause havoc. He’s an excellent strike partner to have.

There’s also Kyle Wilkie, and the contribution he’s made this season. The attacking midfield is a technically gifted wizard – one of the most skilled players in League 2. I’d even go as far as to say he’s been East Fife’s best player this season. His creativity and invention has helped Austin reach those lofty figures, and he’s also chipped in with nine goals of his own. Unfortunately, ignoring loanees and Austin, he’s the one first-team regular who’s not signed up for next season. It would be a huge blow for East Fife to lose him.

East Fife can get by without Austin – they’ve proven that in their last two games – but replacing Wilkie and Insall, if neither returns next season, would be almost impossible for Naysmith. But for now the Fifers can only focus on their promotion push. Next weekend Queen’s Park, who beat them 3-0 at Hampden Park just a few weeks ago, visit Bayview, as East Fife look to break away from Elgin City, Clyde, Annan and the Glasgow club.

 

Stenhousemuir could be dragged into a relegation battle

It’s tight at the bottom of League One. Brechin City’s fourth win on the bounce lifted them off the bottom of the table for the first time since Boxing Day, meaning Cowdenbeath, who lost out to rivals Dunfermline, replaced them. The Blue Brazil are on 29 points, and both Brechin and Forfar Athletic, who claimed a 3-1 win over a stuttering Ayr United, are on 30. For a long time it seemed that Brechin were destined for League Two, and Forfar and Cowdenbeath would fight it out to avoid the play-offs. However, with Brechin’s excellent run and Forfar picking up the odd point in recent weeks, it could turn into a four-horse race.

Stenhousemuir’s form is collapsing at just the wrong time. 26 points from the first 19 matches of the season had put them in contention for the promotion play-offs, especially as Albion Rovers, Stranraer and Airdrieonians also struggled for consistency. However, since the turn of the year the Warriors have picked up eight points from 11 games. It’s left them drifting from the promotion chasing pack, and instead put them within reach of the relegation threatened teams. Brown Ferguson will also be concerned about their current run of results – one point from six matches. His side are now just three points above the play-off relegation place.

Stenhousemuir welcome Forfar to Ochilview next weekend, before a trip to Glebe Park seven days later. If the Angus clubs beat the Warriors, Stenhousemuir could find themselves in a lot of trouble.

 

Stephen Aitken is starting to come under pressure

The Dumbarton job is one of the toughest in Scottish football. The Sons proud themselves on being the best part-time team in Scotland, achieving over the odds in a division mostly made up of full-time clubs. For the most part Dumbarton supporters are a reasonable bunch. They understand the limitations placed on the manager. He has a restricted budget and can only attract players who are willing to drop to part-time. All Dumbarton fans ask for is decent football and not to be relegated. Ian Murray did the latter, if not quite the former, and Dumbarton fans weren’t over fussed about his departure for St. Mirren last summer. Stephen Aitken had done a magnificent job at Stranraer, taking one of the smallest sides in League One to the brink of promotion – the Stair Park club finished two points behind title winners Greenock Morton and crashed out of the play-offs. It looked like a positive appointment.

But things haven’t quite worked out this season. Performances haven’t improved and Dumbarton find themselves creeping ever closer to the relegation play-off place. Livingston sit five points behind the Sons with seven games remaining. Although Aitken is five points behind the 34 that Murray’s side reached last season, he’s beginning to come under increasing pressure from the Dumbarton supporters, and after last weekend’s performance it’s no wonder.

It’s often hard to judge the flow of the game going by highlights. That wasn’t the case for Dumbarton’s trip to Palmerston Park to visit Queen of the South. I wouldn’t implore any Dumbarton fans to watch the highlights unless they count sadomasochism as a hobby. It’s one goal after another. The same music being blasted out time-and-time again as the Doonhamers hammer Dumbarton into submission. It ended 6-0. It’s been five years since Dumbarton last lost by six to a team not called Rangers – to Brechin City by the way. The calls for Aitken to go in the summer increased dramatically after that result.

Dundee Derby: Three Talking Points

Is Mission Impossible on for Dundee United?

With five minutes to go Tannadice burst into life. The rambunctious United support had been silenced by Kane Hemmings’ first-half double – goals which had seemingly sunk the Arabs’ survival hopes. How could United come back from that? A limp first-half performance from those in Tangerine didn’t merit the boisterous welcome they had received as they emerged from the corner of the Eddie Thompson Stand at the beginning of the game. Back then United fans had much to be positive about. Their future was back in their hands. Kilmarnock’s unfortunate 90^th minute loss meant United were just eight points behind Killie and had two games-in-hand. A result against their bitterest of rivals would have cut that to five. But then Hemmings struck twice.

For a decade United dominated this fixture. They celebrated the bragging rights and laughed as Dundee floundered in the Championship; now United were on the brink of relegation as the Dees pushed on for a top-six finish. How things have changed in the City of Discovery.

But out of the blue United were handed a lifeline. Scott Bain dragged down Billy McKay inside the box; the referee had no option but to point to the spot and dismiss the Dundee goalkeeper. John Rankin stepped up and thumped the ball straight down the middle. Game on. It was going to be a tense 40 minutes.

It looked as though Dundee had enough to hold on. United bombarded the opposition box and battled for every ball, but the Dees were resilient and an inspired performance from David Mitchell, Bain’s replacement, stopped the Arabs from taking advantage of their extra man. United even went to three up top in a desperate bid for an equaliser. McKay, Eddie Ofere and Simon Murray all tested the determined Dundee defence. The United fans rewarded their efforts. Tannadice came alive as both sets of fans tried to spur their respective teams on. Then, in the 91^st minute, McKay grabbed the leveller. Tannadice exploded in celebration. Police Scotland even had to have a quiet word with Mixu Paatelainen after the big Finn cupped his ears towards the Dundee supporters behind his dugout. He couldn’t hide his passion.

It’s not the result United would have wanted before the game. Wins, not draws, will keep them up. But the loss would have been devastating – perhaps one they couldn’t recover from. United, like in this game, find themselves behind and in a position that says they should lose. Could this comeback spur them on to make an even greater one?

 

The battle of the 3-5-2s

Mixu Paatelainen’s found mixed success with his 3-5-2 formation. When it does work a big part of that is because of the effectiveness of the wing-backs, Paul Dixon and Blair Spittal. The duo are on double-duty; making sure the three centre-backs aren’t under fire from crosses from the flank and providing support to the strikers from the flanks. Without them there’s no width in the team.

To counteract this Paul Hartley also adopted a 3-5-2 – something he’s done in bigger matches. It meant Spittal and Dixon were up against Kevin Holt and Cammy Kerr respectively. The former has split opinion since his arrival from Queen of the South. The Dundee left-back was singled out for criticism after their 4-0 humbling at Ibrox. Kerr, on the other hand, is held in high regard by the Dens Park faithful. What the young right-back lacks in experience he more than makes up for in boundless energy, determination and relentless running. And for the first-half this change in tactic worked for the Dees. Spittal and Dixon struggled to make an impact on the game, and with Ryan Dow wasting his best chances on the ball, Billy McKay and Henri Anier were offered little support. That changed with the red card.

Hartley had already been forced into making a couple of changes. Thomas Konrad came on for the injured Kostadin Gadzhalov before he also suffered an injury and had to be replaced by Nicky Low. But when Scott Bain was dismissed Hartley had to change his system. Low – a sub for a sub – came off for David Mitchell, Bain’s replacement, and the team switched to a 4-4-1, with Hemmings isolated as the lone-striker – his time harassing the Dundee defence was over. But this change also had ramifications on the defence. Spittal and Dixon started to find more space out on the flanks and started bombarding Dundee’s box with crosses. When Mixu then introduced another striker – sacrificing a centre-mid to go 3-4-3 – it caused even more chaos in the box and created even more space for the wing-backs, who were essentially wingers at this stage. United’s commitment to score paid dividends with McKay’s late equaliser. If Hartley had stuck to a 3-5-2 and took off Stewart, who had little impact in the second-half, for the replacement ‘keeper, might Dundee have offered a sterner resistance and held out?

 

Hemmings torments United’s back three

As mentioned above, United used a 3-5-2, which meant that the strike partnership of Kane Hemmings and Greg Stewart lined up against the centre-back trio of Coll Donaldson, Gavin Gunning and Callum Morris. The trio had a torrid time against the former Cowdenbeath strikers. Hemmings, in particular, ran them ragged.

Donaldson and Gunning shouldn’t be allowed in a team together. It’s too dangerous. Donaldson can often be found ball-watching, reacting late to situations that he should have seen coming. He’s got a decent physical presence, which he used to hold off Hemmings when he was isolated up-front after the sending off, but his awareness is something to behold. Gunning is just a ticking-time bomb. Like Donaldson he’s got some pace and strength but no reading of the game. He has this thing about rushing out.

The three also tried to use the offside-trap, adopting a high-line to try and catch Hemmings offside. Instead this just created space behind them for Gary Harkins to lob through balls over. It came as little surprise when Dundee went two up.

A simple lack of awareness cost United the opener. Donaldson semi-blocked a cross, which deflected to edge of the box. However, when Hemmings reacted quickest to a shot he found himself in acres of space and nutmegged Eiji Kawashima to give Dundee the lead. Not one defender had tracked Hemmings, perhaps thinking he was offside – they’d clearly not realised that Donaldson was still running back from the corner, and thus playing the in-form striker onside.

The second Dundee goal took advantage of the disastrous attempt at on offside trap. A simple long ball got behind the defence, who all raised their hands not realising Stewart had made his run at the perfect time. The attacker then crossed the ball across the box to Hemmings, who poked it in from close range.

Weekend Betting Tips

Dundee United v Dundee

Bet: Both teams to score

Is this the most important Dundee derby in years? Dundee have the chance to increase their odds of a top-six finish and torpedo Dundee United’s survival hopes in one game. The Arabs are in desperate need of three points after back-to-back defeats to Aberdeen and Motherwell derailed their bid to close the gap on Kilmarnock. While Killie are in a poor state themselves at the moment, Mixu Paatelainen will be more than aware that one win for Lee Clark’s side could create a sizeable lead that might prove too difficult to close. Dundee are in no great shakes either. The Dees are winless in four. With things so tight in mid-table, three points could lift them back into contention for a top-four finish with a game-in-hand. Both Dundee clubs have something to fight for. This is about more than bragging rights. It could end up being the last league clash between the two Dundee rivals for some time.

That’s part of the reason I’m going for both teams to score. The other part behind my reasoning is that these Dundee derbies are usually tasty affairs – both teams have scored in four of their last five meetings. Dundee’s current defensive record is impressive – they’ve conceded two goals in their last five matches – but United will be fired up for this encounter.

 

Take a chance: Blair Spittal to score

United’s diminutive winger has made quite the impact in the last three derbies. He added the third in United’s 3-0 rout on the final day of the 2014-15 season; he scored twice in three minutes to give the Arabs a two-goal cushion in August – a lead United threw away; and he opened the scoring at Dens Park in their last meeting. His lightning pace could be a real problem for Kevin Holt.

 

 

Falkirk v Rangers

Bet: Under 2.5 goals

Watching Falkirk can be a dull task. The Bairns are the Barcelona of Stirlingshire – more specifically 2008-12 Barca – and Peter Houston is the Scottish Pep Guardiola. The less fashionable Falkirk manager has transformed his side into a possession-based outfit that pass their opponents to sleep and then go in for the kill. Mark Kerr is very much Xavi in this analogy. Unfortunately it can make for boring viewing. Last weekend’s trip to Dumbarton – as featured on BBC ALBA – put both the Sons and the viewing audience to sleep. Both goals came from the spot – I switched off one minute before Gary Fleming’s 90^th minute equaliser – as Falkirk had to settle for a point. In fact ten of their last 12 matches have featured fewer than 2.5 goals. That includes their 1-0 defeat at Ibrox at the end of January.

 

Take a chance: Kenny Miller to score anytime

There were some concerns about how Rangers would handle the Martin Waghorn’s injury. Where would the goals come from? It’s proven to be the perfect opportunity for Kenny Miller to prove he’s still got it. In his last 13 apperances he’s contributed nine goals. Against Greenock Morton he notched a double as Rangers came from behind to seal a 3-1 victory. If he leads the line against Falkirk expect him to be the danger-man.

 

 

Brechin City v Albion Rovers

Bet: Brechin City to win

The Hedgemen have an opportunity this weekend to come off the bottom of the League One table for the first time since Boxing Day. It’s been a rather miraculous run of form. Darren Dods’ side have strung together three consecutive wins – defeats of Airdrieonians, Ayr United and relegation rivals Forfar Athletic – and are pushing the Loons and Cowdenbeath for League One survival. Although Stenhousemuir could still be dragged into a possible relegation scrap, it appears that the battle is between the three. This weekend Forfar and the Blue Brazil face difficult visits from Ayr United and Dunfermline respectively. Brechin welcome play-off candidates Albion Rovers to Glebe Park.

Perhaps I’m getting too swept up in the moment. Brechin’s turn in form came very sudden and could be extinguished just as quickly. However, there’s also the chance that positive momentum could spur them on against the struggling Coatbridge outfit. Rovers have picked up a miserable 11 points from 13 matches since mid-December and suffered a 1-0 home defeat from Stranraer last weekend. Current form suggests Brechin should win.

 

Take a chance: Both teams NOT to score

This might be pushing my luck. I’m basing this on Brechin’s current form. Not only have Dods’ team won three successive games, but they’ve also kept three successive clean sheets for the first time in the league since 2010. It’s an amazing achievement considering their horrendous form the rest of the season. Rovers are also not a team who score a lot of goals. They’ve scored just 31 goals in 29 games – the second fewest in the division after Stranraer.

Scottish Lower Leagues: Talking Points

League Two: Annan’s defence is leaking in the race for promotion

League Two is the tightest and most unpredictable division in Scottish football. But as the season reaches its climax, the pretenders are starting to slip in the race for the title. Stirling Albion are the latest to drift out of contention. The Binos’ recent losses at Shielfield Park and Borough Briggs have left them 11 points off East Fife, both having played 29 matches. Five hopeful teams remain: the Fifers, Elgin City, Clyde, Queen’s Park and Annan Athletic. Ten points separate East Fife and fifth-place Annan – although the latter have a couple of games-in-hand on the league leaders – after doubles from Jamie Insall and centre-back Jonathan Page gave Gary Naysmith’s side a 4-2 win on Saturday. If Annan are going to make the most of their opportunities and close the gap, something needs to change.

After sixteen matches the Galabankies sat atop of the league. That success had been built on a balanced team. 29 scored and 19 conceded. However, since then Annan have stuttered. Jim Chapman’s side have tasted defeat in six of their last eleven and slipped from first to fifth. The balance is no longer there. Annan scored 20 goals in those eleven games – a similar goal-scoring ratio to their in-form spell. For comparison, East Fife scored 22 in the same amount of games. Yet the Fifers have won eight of those eleven; Annan just two. The issue is that Annan are shipping goals. In those same matches, they’ve picked the ball out of their net 27 times. In the eleven matches before this run, they’d conceded 13 – four of those in one match.

Chapman only lost one defender since the drop in form – Ryan Finnie, the right-back, who joined Alloa Athletic after six-months at Galabank – so it can’t be a change in personnel. He might point the finger at himself. One problem is the constant changing of formations. One week it’s a 3-5-2, next it’s a basic back four. Such switching makes it impossible to create a settled defence. For the most part Chapman’s using the same defenders. Martin McNiff and Peter Watson are still at left and centre-back respectively, although at the weekend Watson featured alongside the experienced Kevin Nicoll. This caused them problems against East Fife. Neither one has much pace, and Insall – in for the injured Nathan Austin – had a fun time getting in behind the duo. Whatever the problem is, Chapman needs to fix it fast.

 

League One: The survival fight goes on for Brechin City

Could Brechin City do the impossible? The Hedgemen were dead and buried and relegation to League Two looked unavoidable. But could the team that sat seven points behind 9^th place Forfar Athletic at the end of February retain their status as a League One outfit? It’s taken three consecutive victories – something they’ve not done since April 2015 – but Darren Dods’ side are back in contention to do just that.

First came a 4-0 thrashing of their Angus rivals Forfar, with Airdrieonians loanee Liam Watt grabbing a brace. Then Robert Thomson’s goal dinted Ayr United’s stuttering title bid as Brechin ran out 1-0 winners. And at the weekend goals from Andy Jackson and Lewis Spence secured three points at the Excelsior Stadium. Meanwhile, Cowdenbeath and Forfar couldn’t be separated and both had to settle for a point. It means Brechin are level with the Loons, on 29 points, and two off the Blue Brazil. They could even end up avoiding the play-offs.

The addition of Watt has made a difference in midfield. The loan came as a surprise – especially to Airdrie supporters – and while fans of the Diamonds lamented the move – it might have been made because of Watt agreeing to join Livingston in the summer – he’s added some much needed directness from the centre. Another change is the sudden improvement in defence. In those three wins Brechin have conceded no goals. That’s the first time Brechin have had three clean sheets in-a-row in the league since 2010.

Brechin could be off the bottom for the first time since Boxing Day if they can beat an inconsistent Albion Rovers at Glebe Park. Although a tough visit to Dunfermline follows, games against Stenhousemuir, Cowdenbeath, Stranraer and Forfar make up four of their final five matches.

 

Championship: Raith find form at the right time

For Raith Rovers, form comes in patches. At the beginning of the season the club enjoyed seven wins in their opening ten games, including a five-match winning streak, before a twelve-game stretch during which they collected just eight points interrupted their chase for fourth. However, that good run of form at the start paid dividends as the club found themselves still just two points behind 4^th place Queen of the South at things started to turn around.

The Kirkcaldy side are the second most in-form team in the Championship after Rangers. In their last six matches Raith have picked up 13 points, in the process defeating challengers Queen of the South, Greenock Morton and St. Mirren – the one loss came at Ibrox. The run has created an eight point gap between them and the chasing Doonhamers – although James Fowler’s side do have a game-in-hand – with eight matches remaining of the normal season.

A big part for this upturn in form has been a couple of fresh faces. Aidan Connolly, arriving after his departure from Dundee United, and Ryan Hardie, on loan from Rangers, have added some much needed pace and directness to Raith’s attack. Hardie’s form has also benefited Mark Stewart, who isn’t known for being the most pacey striker on the planet.

Although Raith laboured to a 1-1 draw at Alloa Athletic at the weekend, Ray McKinnon’s men are still on course for the play-offs. Up next is an out-of-sorts Hibernian.

Betting predictions for the weekend

League Cup Final – Ross County v Hibernian

The first cup final of the Scottish season throws together a brilliant tie. It’s difficult to split these two sides, although perhaps for the wrong reasons. Neither side are coming into this match in-form. Ross County had a goal and man advantage against Dundee United in the Scottish Cup but conceded late to exit the competition. Hibernian aren’t much better either. The Hibees were held to a 1-1 draw against Inverness CT last weekend but lost three successive Championship matches prior to that. This would be an excellent chance for both teams to lift a cup and put themselves back on the right track.

For the Staggies that means challenging for a possible European place. That’s amazing considering their place last season. At the start of 2015 the club were rooted to the bottom of the table on a dismal ten points. By the end of the campaign Jim McIntyre’s side had collected another 34 points and finished 9^th. This season he’s gone even further. Rather than their annual rebuilding job, the Highland side have built something more stable and are being rewarded for it. The League Cup would cap a brilliant season so far. It would also be their first major domestic cup trophy – I’m not counting the third-rate Challenge Cup. If McIntyre can guide his side to cup success and lead them to a fourth place finish, he deserves a Manager of the Year nod.

Hibs, on the other hand, have, as I explained earlier, been in a poor run of form. This run has allowed Rangers to run away with the Championship – and that all-important automatic promotion place. It means that Hibs will, barring Rangers imploding, be involved in a tough play-off scrap. This cup could lift morale in the run-in before possible games against Falkirk, Raith Rovers and whoever finishes 11^th in the Premiership.

 

Bet: Over 2.5 goals

I’ll admit at this is more based on Ross County’s results. 11 of their last 15 games in all competitions have finished with over 2.5 goals, including their 3-2 defeat to Dundee United last weekend in the Scottish Cup. Hibs’ recent results have been poor, as I mentioned above. Just seven of their last 15 have involved more than 2.5 goals, which perhaps doesn’t support my thinking, but the Staggies don’t balk from a challenge – as Celtic can attest – and often go on the offensive in these sorts of games. Their poor defensive record might also provoke Hibs into adopting a more attacking approach as well. Let’s hope.

 

Both teams to score and Ross County to win

This choice continues over from the previous one. With over 2.5 goals I’d expect both teams to score. But I’m also predicting County to lift the trophy on Sunday afternoon. It’s too difficult to see Hibs doing anything at the moment without ‘Hibsing’ it up – although I’ll admit I’m kind of hoping the Staggies take the cup back up to Dingwall.

 

 

Championship – Alloa Athletic v Raith Rovers

Bet: Raith Rovers to win

Raith Rovers are a team in-form. The Fife club are opening up a bit of a gap between them and their challengers in the fight to finish fourth. On Tuesday evening, the Rovers defeated Queen of the South 2-0 in comfortable fashion after squeezing out a 4-3 victory over St. Mirren in a thrilling contest on Saturday. In fact, the Kirkcaldy club have won four of their last five – and that one defeat came at Ibrox. The recent additions of Aidan Connolly on the right-flank and Ryan Hardie up front – I’ll get to him in a bit – have added some much needed pace and directness to Raith’s attack and they’re feeling the benefits as the season comes to a close.

Alloa, on the other hand, are destined for relegation. Four back-to-back losses have put them 11 points behind 9^th place Livingston. The Wasps are doomed. Jack Ross’ side have scored just 15 goals in 28 games and conceded an astonishing 57.

 

Take a chance: Ryan Hardie to score

The Rangers loanee has made quite the impact since his arrival at Stark’s Park. In two starts and two substitute appearances Hardie has bagged four goals. His 89^th minute winner against Greenock Morton made him an instant hero, and at the end of his full-debut against St. Mirren he kept the match ball having grabbed a hat-trick. But it’s not just his goals that have endeared him to the Raith support. He’s also brought the best out in Mark Stewart. Perhaps it shouldn’t come as a surprise to read that Raith supporters are hoping Rangers’ promotion might mean he’ll return for another season.

 

 

League Two – East Fife v Annan Athletic

Bet: both teams to score:

League Two is unpredictable. I’d advise never betting on a winner, because form counts for nothing at the moment. East Fife are the in-form team, picking up 13 points from the last 18 available – not amazing for the best record in the division – and just five points separates 2^nd from 8^th in the form table. Each team is more than capable of losing.

The last meeting between these two came at the beginning of the year. In white-out conditions – most expected the game to be called off – East Fife ran out 4-2 victors at Galabank. Annan’s recent results also back up my prediction. 12 of their previous 15 games have ended with both teams scoring, including last weekend’s 3-3 draw against Clyde and a 2-2 draw against Stirling Albion the week before that. Annan are a team that scores, having the joint-best record in the league for doing so – East Fife are one behind. Expect goals in Methil.

 

Take a chance: Josh Todd to score

Annan’s English centre-mid has been on fire in recent matches. Against Clyde he scored a double; against Stirling Albion he notched one; and against East Stirlingshire he bagged one. That’s four in his last three matches. He’s one for running from deep and getting on the end of chances. A more sensible goal choice would be Nathan Austin – the league’s joint-top scorer along with Craig Gunn on 19 – but Todd is a bet for the man who likes to take risks.

Can Dick Campbell fix Arbroath?

Dick Campbell has a task on his hands. He cut a frustrated figure on the touchline as Blair Henderson pounced on a blocked effort to rifle Berwick Rangers into the lead. Campbell’s first game in charge of Arbroath had started four minutes before. In the second half Henderson rounded a committed Allan Fleming to add a second, before Darren Lavery’s header bounced off the post and across the line to give the hosts a comfortable 3-0 lead. Less than 24 hours after his appointment and Arbroath had dropped a place. The Lichties slumped to 9^th, just five points ahead of East Stirlingshire. Make no mistake, Arbroath are fighting for League Two survival.

But it’s impossible to blame Campbell; he’d had no time to make an impact. The problems that Arbroath face have been building for some time.

When Todd Lumsden took over from Allan Moore in April 2015 the Lichties were in shocking form. Arbroath had dominated the opening half of the season. A stunning 5-1 defeat of East Fife in the final game of 2014 sent them six points clear of Albion Rovers, and no one looked like catching the league leaders. Arbroath were destined for an immediate return to League One. But then came the slump of all slumps – just two victories from the remaining 18 matches – and Arbroath, after sacking Moore and promoting his assistant, Lumsden, had to settle for the play-offs. Queen’s Park quashed their hopes of promotion in the semi-finals. Lumsden had to reshape his battered and bruised squad into a side capable of promotion.

Lumsden’s main focus had to be on replacing his outgoing strikers. Simon Murray had notched 20 goals and menaced defences over the course of the season. Such devastating form had earned the ginger-haired striker a move to Dundee United. Paul McManus, who had contributed 11 goals, suffered an injury, and so the club decided not to keep him on. Arbroath brought in seven strikers during his time in charge: Greg Rutherford holds up the ball but lacks the finishing touch; the Dundee loanee Josh Skelly is raw, and for all his effort he’s not been productive enough; Kane Hester arrived from Arbroath Vics and has shown glimpses of talent coming off the bench; Joao Vitoria has disappeared; Andy Ryan had a successful short-loan spell but returned to Hamilton before leaving to join Forfar Athletic; and neither Martin Grehan nor Lewis Coult made an impact before departing.

This is the first issue Campbell has to address. There are not enough goals in this team. The Lichties have scored a pitiful 33 goals in 28 games – the fewest in the league. Even East Stirlingshire have celebrated more goals than that. Rutherford is in desperate need of a strike partner that can finish the chances he creates, and preferably one with an abundance of pace.

Another problem is the lack of invention coming through the centre. Arbroath are too reliant on the talents of Bobby Linn and Jordan Lowdon to create opportunities. Linn’s effortlessness on the ball and his determination and drive continue to trouble defences at this level, while Lowdon has stepped up his game this season. The left-winger, although often used at left-back, was judged to have been one of Moore’s poor signings, and some supporters even criticised the decision to retain his services last summer. But his blistering pace and, like Linn, drive put opposing full-backs under a lot of strain. When the pair missed out on a recent visit to Methil – poor them – Arbroath lacked creation in the final third. There are midfielders capable of keeping possession, and others who can pass, but without the duo two there’s little for the strikers to get on the end of. More needs to be asked of Darren Ramsay, who’s disappointed on loan from Rangers on the left-flank, and the likes of Sergio Alvarez.

One bonus for Campbell, although it might not be so obvious after Tuesday’s result, is that Arbroath have a pretty solid defence. The Lichties have conceded 37 goals, the fifth best record in the league and the second strongest outside the top four. Fleming, ignoring his occasional flap, has been a decent pair of hands since his arrival from East Fife. Craig Wilson has also been reliable at right-back – although he can struggle against quicker opponents. One huge blow is the injury that Hamilton Academical loanee Craig Watson suffered. The centre-back looks to be out for, according to the Accies’ site, over a year. He’d been an assured operator alongside the more experienced Ricky Little at in the heart of defence.

Campbell won’t be judged on the remainder of this season. His main ambitions will be to retain Arbroath’s League Two status and assess the squad at his disposal. Lumsden built half a team, one that could defend but not score, and one that lacks invention. There’s no doubt that Campbell needs to recruit another striker, one who can partner Greg Rutherford. It could also be argued that Arbroath require a left-winger – Ramsay has been really poor – or a left-back, with Lowdon pushing up into his natural position. And with Watson’s injury, Campbell now needs a centre-back. Perhaps Campbell can succeed where Lumsden failed.